In this article you will find, step by step, with examples, the best sports betting strategies for the world’s most beloved team sport, football.
Many ask how to win at sports betting ?
These betting strategies can improve your chances of winning or reduce your losses. Using a betting technique involves, first of all, discipline. Then patience and constant study.
1. Betting on favourites
This betting strategy is recommended to those who bet on favourites (top teams).
Choose a team that has made at least one wrong move during the last 2-3 matches, a match where the apparent favourite does not win (e.g. Chelsea – Hull 1-1), but the next opponent must be the same type as the one in the match where the favourite made the wrong move (e.g. Chelsea – Reading).
The odds will be as great as the match, between 1.15 and 1.40, but think that it will bring you 15-40% of the amount.
It would be ideal to place an accumulator bet that contains 2-3 matches for a more consistent win.
- Chelsea – Bolton 1 – @ 1.25
- Liverpool – Wigan 1 – @ 1.30
- Arsenal – West Ham 1 – @ 1.35
- Final betting odds: @ 2.19
This bet doubles the invested amount.
* Use our Betting Odds Calculator & Convertor to help you determine how much money you’ll win!
2. Betting against favourites
This betting strategy is recommended to those who are looking for significant gains, high-odds matches, more precisely for those who bet against favourites. You choose the favourites that have 4-5 consecutive wins, both at home and away, and bet against the favourite until you win. You have to make sure that in the next 4-5 matches, the team’s opponents are of the same type (middle and bottom of the top).
If you lose a bet, you double or triple the stake for the next bet.
Milan – Reggina: 1 = 1.20, X = 4.00, 2 = 12.00
Last 6 matches: Milan = V V V V V V; Reggina = D E DDDD [ V = victory, E = equal, D = defeat ]
- 1E bet on equal: 1E x 4.00 = 4E (possible profit: 2E)
- 1E bet on Reggina: 1E x 12 = 12E (possible profit: 10E)
– Suppose Milan won the match, so you lost both bets. For the next bet, you will double or triple the stake, depending on the odds.
Treviso – Milan: 1 = 6.00, X = 3.60, 2 = 1.50
- 3E bet on 3E x 3.60 = 10.80E (possible profit: 2,80E)
- 3E bet on Treviso: 3E x 6.00 = 18.00E (possible profit: 10E)
– Suppose the match ends in a draw so you will have a total profit of 2.80E. Theoretically, a favourite may have on average 4-5 consecutive wins, after which, in general, they make a wrong move. Of course, there may be exceptions; there have been cases where a favourite team has even won 14 consecutive matches.
3. Single match strategy
Among all the techniques this is the one betting strategies consists that in choosing a single match. There is a condition: the odds of your favourite should be at least 2.00. You have to choose the match carefully you will bet on because the risk for strategy is quite high.
Here’s how it works:
Example 1 – bet on favourite and draw:
Milan – Liverpool: 1 = 2.20, X = 3.10, 2 = 3.50
– use a simple formula depending on the amount you want to earn.
- 10E / 2.20 = 4.54E (this will be the first stake); 4.54E * 2.20 = 10E (possible profit: 2.24E)
- 10E / 3.10 = 3.22E (this will be the second stake); 3.22E * 3.10 = $ 10 (possible profit: 2.24E)
Example 2 – bet on favourite and outsider:
Milan – Liverpool: 1 = 2.20, X = 3.10, 2 = 3.50
– apply the same simple formula depending on the amount you want to earn.
- 10E / 2.20 = 4.54E (this will be the first stake); 4.54E * 2.20 = 10E (possible profit: 2.61E)
- 10E / 3.50 = 2.85E (this will be the second stake); 2.85E * 3.10 = 10E (possible profit: 2.61E)
4. X Strategy ( Draw )
It consists in choosing a championship in which, on average, at least two matches end in a draw. In this betting strategy, you choose a team that has not scored an equal number of goals in at least 5-6 matches. You will bet on a draw for any match of this team until you win. After each lost bet, you double or triple the stake.
If you choose this strategy, it is critical that you calculate your budget.
Milan – Lecce: 1 = 1.30, X = 4.00, 2 = 10.00
2E x 4.00 = 8.00E (possible profit: 6.00E, you lose)
Roma – Milan: 1 = 2.40, X = 3.10, 2 = 3.20
6E x 3.10 = 18.60E (possible profit : 10.60E, you lose)
Milan – Lazio: 1 = 1.70, X = 3.20, 2 = 4.00
18E x 3.20 = 57.60E (possible profit: 31.60E, you lose)
Reggina – Milan: 1 = 6.50, X = 3.50, 2 = 1.60
54E x 3.50 = 189.00E (possible profit: 109.00E, you win)
5. Martingale Betting Strategy
The Martingale System is among the old betting strategies. This strategy is ancient and was initially created for casino players. It’s an easy-to-understand system: if you lose your bet (bets), increase your stakes progressively to cover all your losses and earn a profit on your first win. As soon as you have achieved the expected profit, you repeat the strategy from the beginning and bet the initial stake.
The following formula is to achieve the amount of money as a stake:
Stake = (L + P) / (O – 1)
- L = total accumulated from previous losses
- P = desired profit
- O = decimal odds
What are the risks of the Martingale system?
The big drawback consists in the practical aspect. A failure forces the bettor to risk an enormous amount of money. According to the Martingale system, after a series of 5 lost bets with odds of 2 (2.00), the stake for the sixth bet must be 32 times the initial bet. Moreover, the Martingale system itself is not a way to have long-term profits.
The only way for a bettor to do this is to calculate probabilities with more accuracy than bookmakers.
6. D’ALEMBERT System
This system bears the name of Jean Le Rond d’Alembert, a mathematician and physicist known for his theories full of novelty in those times. His theory sustained in the “Law of Dynamic Equilibrium” implies a balance between the success and failure of a played event. D’Alembert, often confronted with a pyramid system, increases the bet stake by a unit in case of an unsuccessful bet and reduces it by one unit in the case of a winning bet.
The amount can be increased or decreased depending on the odds.
STEP 1 – Bet 10 EUR on odds of 1.80, if you lose, you still bet 20 EUR, if the bet is a winning bet in the next round you will also bet 10 EUR.
STEP 2 – If the first bet was lost and you bet 20 EUR on the next bet, here is what you will do next. If the bet wins, return to the 10 EUR stake, if the bet is again lost, increase the bet by 10 EUR and bet 30 EUR in the next step.
STEP 3 – If your bet is still unsuccessful and you have bet 30 EUR, in the next stage increase the stake by 10 EUR. If you have bet 30 EUR and the bet has won, you reduce the amount by 10 EUR, meaning you bet 20 EUR on the next event.
7. The KELLY Criterion
The Kelly Criterion allows you to calculate the optimal stake according to your odds and prediction. Betting more would be a useless risk and betting less would involve fewer returns.
The optimal stake is a percentage of the total amount you will spend on sports betting.
How do you calculate your stakes using the Kelly Criterion?
To calculate the stake, you need to know the bookmaker’s odds (O) and have accurately calculated the probability of a favourable result of your predictions (P).
Therefore, the following formula applies:
% = (O x P – 1) / (O – 1)
- O = odds
- P = the probability calculated for the prediction to be correct.
Attention, this system will only bring you a profit if you calculate the probability with more precision than a bookmaker.
Final Words For This 7 Betting Strategies
If your estimates are wrong, the strategy could speed up the losses.
Before you use these betting strategies for your sports betting slip, I advise you to test them, and once you’ve made sure that the seven betting strategies apply to you, choose the most profitable one.