Pre-Match Analysis of 1st Round Matches
The first round of the La Liga will stretch as much as four days. Opening the season, Girona and Valladolid will play on August 17. And to close the program of the 1st round there will be a match at the “San Mames” between the local Athletic Bilbao and Leganes. Let’s briefly talk about all the matches, learn the forecasts of bookmakers and see the best betting tips.
Girona – Valladolid August 17, 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 53%. Draw – 28%. 2 – 19%.
Forecast of the match Girona – Valladolid 3:1. Last season, Girona was a real discovery, the debutant was not afraid of anyone and for a long time struggled to get into the League of Europe. For sure, the Catalans want to exceed their achievement, laying the foundation in the first round. In four of the last five personal meetings at home Girona defeated the opponent, and most likely will do it again.
Betis – Levante August 17, 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 52%. Draw – 26%. 2 – 22%.
Forecast of the match Betis – Levante 2:0. Betis did well during the championship, not only securing a ticket to the group stage of the League of Europe, but also bypassing the eternal rival Sevilla. Levante finished at the bottom of the table, played poorly, but escaped the struggle for survival. Betis is uniquely superior, has the advantage of home ground and should not lose points.
Celta – Espanyol August 18, 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 51%. Draw – 28%. 2 – 21%.
Forecast of the match Celta – Espanyol 2:2. Both teams changed coaches in the offseason, so it’s not entirely clear what to expect from Celta and Espanyol. If we proceed from friendly matches, the parakeets are in better shape and play reasonably effectively. At the same time, three previous matches between these teams delighted spectators with goals – 2:2, 1:2, 2:2.
Villarreal – Real Sociedad August 18, 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 48%. Draw – 28%. 2 – 24%.
Forecast of the match Villarreal – Real Sociedad 2:1 . As you know, the Sansebastians are a home team, whereas the yellow submarine plays very powerfully on home ground as well. If we add to this the difference in the class and the statistics of the last confrontations: 4 wins of the submarine and 2 draws, then there will be less doubts about the victory of Villarreal.
Barcelona – Alaves 18 August 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 87%. Draw – 9%. 2 – 4%.
Forecast of the match Barcelona – Alaves 3:1. With the favourite here everything is very clear, you just need to determine the correct odds for this match. Will the defeat or the victory of the Catalans be with a difference in a couple of goals?
Eibar – Huesca August 19, 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 58%. Draw – 24%. 2 – 18%.
Forecast match Eibar – Huesca 2:0. In the last championship the gunsmiths were a pleasant surprise, becoming the best team from the Basque Country. It is a pity that at the end of the season they were exhausted. During the vacation they clearly gathered strength and are ready for new achievements, at least in home matches they should not experience problems against the debutant of the elite division and the main underdog of the league.
Rayo Vallecano – Sevilla August 19, 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 28%. Draw – 27%. 2 – 45%.
Forecast match Rayo Vallecano – Sevilla 2:2 . The bees, in the season 2015/2016, became the fifth team of the championship in the number of goals scored, but the problem was that they relegated. In La Liga’s starting round, the returning Rayo Vallecano will not be afraid of Sevilla and it is unlikely that the problems of the Andalusians on defense have evaporated so quickly.
Real Madrid – Getafe on August 19, 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 79%. Draw – 14%. 2 – 7%.
Forecast match Real – Getafe 3:0 . The current winner of the Champions League will start in the championship against a team from the suburbs of the capital Getafe. The galacticos won the last nine home matches against Getafe, and in the eight previous cases with a difference of at least two goals.
Valencia – Atletico Madrid August 20, 2018
Outcome probability: P1 – 34%. Draw – 30%. P2 – 36%.
Forecast of the match Valencia – Atletico 1:1 . The central match of the first round, in which the fourth and the second ranked of the last championship will meet. We will probably witness a cautious match. Last season’s encounters looked like that: 0:0 and 0:1.
Athletic Bilbao – Leganes August 20, 2018
Outcome probability: 1 – 53%. Draw – 27%. 2 – 20%.
Forecast of the match Athletic – Leganes 2:0. The team from Bilbao failed in the previous championship, finishing on the 16th place. Leganes generally looked good, patted the nerves of Real Madrid, gave out a couple of bright matches, but finished on the 17th place, losing to Athletic. For Leganes the main thing is to keep a residence permit, but the Basques are going to be rehabilitated, and there is no doubt that Eduardo Berizzo will return the team to the previous level. Starting with the first match.
Features of bets of La Liga ??
1. High efficiency . In La Liga, traditionally, matches are played quite effectively. Almost all the teams are aimed at attacking. Last season, an average of 2.69 goals were scored per match.
2. Minimal wins . 41% of matches of the past season ended with a difference in one goal. None of the other top championships has such a high level of minimum wins.
3. A large number of cards . In the previous edition, 26 red and 1859 yellow cards were shown.
4. Goals. In the season 2017/2018, 71 goals were scored from the penalty spot, and this is a high figure. In the Premier League with an 11-meter mark, only 45 goals are scored, in Bundesliga – 51. With the introduction of the VAR penalty there will be even more.
5. Derby matches. The Spanish championship is rich in derby matches. Real Madrid – Barcelona, Atletico – Real, Sevilla – Betis, Athletic – Real Sociedad, Espanyol – Barcelona and many, many other matches.
Bets on the Winner of La Liga 2018/2019
The current champion of Spain is Barcelona. Over the past five years, the Catalans have taken the first place three times, in the penultimate season, Real Madrid became the winner, and in 2014 – Atletico.
In the season 18/19 the bookmakers give Barcelona as a favourite – odds of 1.75 (bet365) to defend the title. The chances of Real Madrid are listed below – 2.50. Analysts almost do not believe in the victory of the third force of Spanish football – hence the odds of 11.00 for the victory of Atletico Madrid . Other teams are not seriously considered as contenders for the trophy:
• Valencia – 101.00
• Sevilla – 151.00
• Villarreal – 251.00
You can bet on all the other teams of the Spanish championship at odds from 501.00 to 4001.00.
We recommend to bet on the victory of Barcelona in Spain La Liga for 1.75 , because it is difficult to predict what Real Madrid will be doing under Lopetegui. Also, the risk in betting on Atletico is justified by the odds of 11.00.