But even if you may have done the best football analysis possible, there is an event that can occur and that is likely to ruin or otherwise make you win your bet … and which you can absolutely not control …
Your football analysis ruined by the expulsion of a player
This is the expulsion! And this is likely to have an influence on the outcome of the match.
The cause of the expulsion. There are several reasons that can cause the expulsion of a player.
• The referee. He can be more or less severe and easily distribute or not the warnings and red cards, he wants to be respected, and may be sensible or not to the players’ claims.
• The competition. Certain faults or claims in the Champions League or in international matches will be more easily reprimanded by a warning or expulsion than the same fault made in a national championship. The referees are among the best and do not hesitate to apply the rules to the letter for a mistake deserving a red card.
• Tiredness. A tired player, who wants to take the ball from his opponent, may arrive late and fault his opponent rather than take the ball. It will be spectacular and dangerous. But if the phase is not controlled, the expulsion can be the consequence of this lack of physical condition.
• Inexperience. The inexperienced player will be more likely to make stupid mistakes, get upset or make inappropriate remarks to the referee.
• A tense climate. A club in a bad position, press criticism or altercations with supporters can make players nervous and make silly and useless mistakes.
• Loss of self control. Some players can go crazy during a match and their team may get penalised. Stress, revenge after a fault not sanctioned by the referee, the player acting like an idiot, or the loss of self control that often gets out of proportion … and the team falls as well.
The importance of the moment
The consequence of an expulsion on your prediction also depends on when the red card occurs. A player excluded in the 10th minute will inevitably have more consequences than if the event occurs in the 87th minute.
Consequences on your football betting analysis
There are 3 possible outcomes for your prognosis following the expulsion of a player:
• The team you bet on is penalised by this red card. Your analysis is then strongly handicapped by playing at 10 against 11. And that can ruin your bet.
• However, an eviction can also wake up or confirm a fighting spirit in the team impacted. It can then get to draw or even victory.
• If the team you bet on is 11 to 10, then you can consider this event as an aid to your prognosis, knowing that it has already been validated by your analysis. But the sport is never safe, the point just mentioned above can disturb all that …
The expulsion of one or more players in a match is hard to predict. This kind of element is likely to impact the outcome of a football match. But unfortunately there is not enough certainty to include this kind of data in the preparation of our football betting analysis …