Our Predictions
Italy are huge favorites at home (1.25), with a history of strong results against Northern Ireland. The Azzurri have only lost once in their last five at home and have scored freely against this opponent. Their greater quality and hunger to return to the World Cup should see them through.
Four of the last five meetings saw Northern Ireland fail to score. Italy’s defense will be on high alert after recent slips, and Northern Ireland have struggled for goals away. The odds (1.62) point to a clean sheet for the hosts.
Recent matches between these sides have been low scoring, with just one going over 2.5 goals in the last five meetings. Playoff tension should keep things tight, and the odds for under 2.5 (2.15) offer good value for an intense, defensive knockout game.
Accumulator odds
Italy vs Northern Ireland – World Cup Playoff Showdown | Extratips Preview
Welcome to Extratips for your in-depth match preview of Italy vs Northern Ireland! The Azzurri host Northern Ireland on March 26, 2026, in a do-or-die World Cup playoff semi-final. Only a win keeps their dreams alive as Italy aims to end a 12-year World Cup absence under intense pressure at home. Northern Ireland will relish the underdog role, with nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Top Odds Snapshot
- Italy to win: 1.25
- Draw: 5.50
- Northern Ireland to win: 9.00
Odds show Italy are big favorites, but pressure has caught them before.
Italy finished just behind Norway in their group and must rediscover their best form after a 4-1 home defeat to Norway. Northern Ireland, led by Michael O'Neill, are organized and tough to break down.
Last 5 matches between these sides: Italy won 2-0 (2021), they drew 0-0 (2021), Italy won 3-0 (2011), drew 0-0 (2010), Italy won 3-0 (2009). Italy hold the clear upper hand in head-to-heads, conceding just once across those encounters.
Italy’s recent home form: WLWDW. Northern Ireland away: LDLWD.
Italy’s strengths: Strong at home, plenty of attacking threat (Retegui, Kean), experienced squad. Weaknesses: Heavy pressure, recent defensive slips, can struggle to break down deep defenses.
Northern Ireland’s strengths: Organized defense, good counterattacks, work rate. Weaknesses: Lack of top-level goal scorers, inconsistent away form, less playoff experience.
Key factors: Italy are nearly at full strength, but carry the weight of expectation. Northern Ireland arrive free of pressure.
Interesting angles: Will Italy’s World Cup nerves strike again? Can Northern Ireland repeat North Macedonia’s famous upset? Will a star forward steal the spotlight?
Both teams’ history and recent form point to a tight, tactical battle—one slip could decide it all.