Our model makes AEK Athens clear favourites, giving the Home win a 52.4% probability, notably higher than the Draw at 25.1% and Away at 22.5%. At the books, Home is trading around 1.56–1.57, implying roughly a 64% chance, which aligns with the view that AEK are the stronger side in this tie. AEK come off a title‑winning Greek Super League campaign, finishing 1st with 60 points from 26 games and a +32 goal difference, showing both consistency and balance in attack and defence. Their recent league playoff run featured solid results against Olympiakos, PAOK and Panathinaikos, including wins like 3–0 vs PAOK and 2–1 vs Panathinaikos, plus draws in tough away grounds, underlining their resilience at a high level. The first leg in Sofia ended 0–0, where AEK kept Levski quiet away from home and created the better chances, so returning to the OPAP Arena with the tie level is a big boost. AEK’s home form has been excellent over their last five in Athens, with three wins and two draws, strong goals scored, and very few conceded. Levski, meanwhile, are flying domestically – 4 wins from 4 in the Bulgarian Parva Liga, 9 goals scored and 2 conceded – but they step up in class here and must handle a loud, hostile atmosphere in Athens. The Greek champions have more European experience, a deeper squad, and better game management over 90 minutes, especially in a tense second leg. Combining a 52.4% model edge for Home, strong home form, and Levski’s underdog status away, AEK Athens to win is the most logical call.

Our model leans slightly to a cagey contest, giving BTTS No a 51.0% probability versus 49.0% for Yes, so it just edges the market. That view fits what we have seen so far: the first leg in Sofia finished 0–0, with both sides cancelling each other out and neither attack able to find a way through. Head‑to‑head is still a tiny sample, but it reads 0–0 in goals and 0–0 in that only meeting, so the trend between these two clubs is clearly low scoring. Recent AEK games in big spots have often been tight and controlled; in their last playoff matches at home they beat PAOK 3–0 but also had cautious draws such as 0–0 away at Panathinaikos and 1–1 against Olympiakos, where defensive structure mattered more than open attacking. Levski arrive with good domestic form – four straight league wins and only two goals conceded – and have shown they can defend deep and compact against stronger sides, as they did in the 0–0 first leg. In a Champions League playoff second leg with the tie level, nerves and risk‑aversion usually dominate, especially early in the match. AEK are likely to control the ball and territory, while Levski sit in and focus on not conceding first. That game script naturally favours at least one team keeping a clean sheet. With the model nudging BTTS No to 51.0%, the first‑leg stalemate, and both defences in solid recent form, Both teams to score – No has the edge here.

Our model points towards a relatively low‑scoring second leg, giving Under 2.5 a 53.7% probability compared with 46.3% for Over. The only meeting so far in this tie finished 0–0 in Sofia, and neither side managed to break the deadlock despite long spells of tactical probing rather than end‑to‑end football. Head‑to‑head therefore sits at 0 goals in 1 game, and the trend in AEK’s recent big matches supports the idea of another tight encounter: results like 0–0 at Panathinaikos, 1–1 vs Olympiakos, and a controlled 2–1 at home to Panathinaikos show they often keep things within two or fewer goals when the stakes are high. Levski have been efficient rather than wild in Bulgaria, winning four from four in the league with a 9–2 goal difference, and they showed in the first leg that they are happy to keep numbers behind the ball and slow the tempo against stronger opposition. Champions League playoff second legs with the aggregate at 0–0 tend to start cagey, with both sides more afraid to concede than eager to overcommit, which usually keeps the scoreline low at least until late stages. Given our model’s 53.7% probability for Under 2.5, the goalless first leg, and both defences’ recent stability, a match with one or two goals at most looks more likely than a high‑scoring shoot‑out. This also fits our other calls: AEK edging a controlled home win without both teams scoring is a consistent scenario.