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At a glance
The statistical model gives AFC Bournemouth a 56% probability to beat Leeds United, with the draw at 25% and a Leeds United win at 18%.
The model estimates a 52% probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United.
The model puts the probability that both AFC Bournemouth and Leeds United score at 48%.
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: Premier League Match Prediction
Welcome to Extratips for the Vitality Stadium clash between Bournemouth and Leeds United. The match kicks off on Saturday, 31 October 2026, at 15:00 in Bournemouth.
Bournemouth arrive after a 2-0 league win over Sunderland, while Leeds drew 1-1 with Manchester United. The available table places Leeds eighth and Bournemouth 17th, creating different pressures: Leeds can chase the European pack, while Bournemouth need points to move clear of danger. Recent reports also list Bournemouth concerns around Alex Scott and other squad injuries, so team news could shape the final line-up.
The leading prices are Bournemouth at 2.1000, Under 2.5 goals at 1.9500, and No on both teams scoring at 2.1000. They point toward a home win in a fairly tight game.
Recent head-to-head meetings have produced close contests, including two 2-2 draws in 2025-26, while Bournemouth won 4-1 in April 2023. The Cherries’ home setting is the key edge, but Leeds’ organised approach may keep the score down. Watch for a patient first half, followed by Bournemouth pressure after the break. A Bournemouth clean-sheet win looks the strongest storyline, though Leeds remain capable of making this a tense afternoon.
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives AFC Bournemouth a 56% win probability, Leeds United 18%, and the draw 25%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 52%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Under 2.5 at 52%, indicating a lower-scoring affair is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 73
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AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x22.1000
Bournemouth to win.
The model gives Home a 56.4% probability, making Bournemouth the clear preferred result. The Cherries recently beat Sunderland 2-0 and have home advantage, while Leeds have drawn several league matches and sit lower in the available form evidence. Bournemouth also won the latest clearly recorded meeting 4-1 in April 2023, although recent head-to-head games have been tighter. The listed home price is 2.1000.
Both Teams To Score2.1000
Both teams to score: No.
The model gives No a 51.9% probability, narrowly favouring a clean sheet. Bournemouth kept Sunderland scoreless in their latest league match, while Leeds have shown a tendency toward draws rather than open wins. The market lists No at 2.1000, and this selection fits a likely controlled Bournemouth victory, such as 1-0 or 2-0.
Over/Under1.9500
Under 2.5 total goals.
The model gives Under 2.5 a 52.1% probability, pointing to a close, low-scoring contest. Bournemouth’s latest league win ended 2-0, and Leeds’ recent 1-1 draw with Manchester United also supports a cautious match script. The listed Under 2.5 price is 1.9500, with 1-0 and 2-0 the most consistent scorelines with the other predictions.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
8.60
Potential Winnings
$379.98
Bournemouth to win.
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: No.
Both Teams To Score / No
Under 2.5 total goals.
Over/Under / Under 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
56%
Home
Fair odd 1.77
25%
Draw
Fair odd 3.97
18%
Away
Fair odd 5.43
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 72%
Under 28%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 48%
Under 52%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 28%
Under 72%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 48%
No 52%
First Half Winner
42%
Home
41%
Draw
17%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
37%
5%
2%
Draw
19%
13%
7%
Away
4%
5%
9%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
8.9
6.3
2.6
0.8
1
13.3
10.9
4.4
1.4
2
10.1
9.3
4.3
1.4
3
5.5
5.1
2.4
0.9
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
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AFC Bournemouth1Leeds United3| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +11 | 20:9 | 21 | LWWWW | |
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 13:5 | 21 | WWWLW | |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 23:5 | 16 | WWWWD | |
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 17:15 | 13 | LWWLD | |
| 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 9:8 | 12 | WLWDW | |
| 6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 9:12 | 11 | WWDWL | |
| 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +5 | 13:8 | 10 | LDWDD | |
| 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9:6 | 10 | DLDWD | |
| 9 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 8:9 | 10 | LLDWD | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 12:16 | 10 | DLWLW | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 8:7 | 9 | LDLDD | |
| 12 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 8:10 | 9 | WWDLD | |
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8:10 | 8 | WWLDD | |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 10:14 | 8 | LLWLD | |
| 15 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10:10 | 7 | DDDLD | |
| 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 9:17 | 7 | LWDLW | |
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9:13 | 6 | WLLDD | |
| 18 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6:10 | 6 | DLLLW | |
| 19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6:15 | 6 | LLWWL | |
| 20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 6:14 | 4 | LLLLD |
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