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At a glance
The statistical model gives Brentford a 41% probability to win away against Aston Villa, with the draw at 24% and a Aston Villa win at 35%.
The model estimates a 59% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Brentford.
The model puts the probability that both Aston Villa and Brentford score at 61%.
Aston Villa vs Brentford kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00.
Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction: Premier League Preview
Welcome to Extratips for the latest Aston Villa vs Brentford match prediction. The game starts at 14:00 on Saturday, October 10, 2026, at Villa Park.
Brentford arrive in fourth place with nine points from five matches. They are unbeaten, with two wins and three draws. Aston Villa sit 16th on four points after three defeats. Villa have scored four goals and conceded nine, while Brentford have found the net ten times and allowed four.
The market keeps this close: Brentford are priced at 2.5000, Villa at 2.6000, and the draw at 3.6000. Brentford's recent edge is clear. They won the last meeting 1-0 and also took a 1-0 victory in August 2025. The sides drew 1-1 in the 2025 League Cup, while Villa won 1-0 in March 2025 and 3-1 in December 2024.
Villa's injury list is a major talking point. Amadou Onana and Ian Maatsen are expected to miss out, with Pau Torres, Leon Goretzka and Marco Bizot doubtful. Brentford may be without Mathias Jensen, Joshua Dasilva, Antoni Milambo, Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg. Dango Ouattara is also a doubt.
That could make midfield control decisive. Villa have home support and attacking talent, but Brentford's form and defensive balance stand out. The likeliest script is a lively contest with goals at both ends. Brentford may edge it, yet Villa should create enough to score. The model favours Away, Both Teams To Score: Yes, and Over 2.5 goals.
Aston Villa vs Brentford Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Aston Villa a 35% win probability, Brentford 41%, and the draw 24%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 61%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 59%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 93
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Aston Villa vs Brentford: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lost1x22.5000
Brentford to win
The model gives Brentford a 39.7% probability of an away win, the highest 1X2 figure. Brentford sit fourth with nine points after five matches and remain unbeaten, while Aston Villa are 16th with four points after one win, one draw and three losses. The odds of 2.5000 also make Brentford a narrow market favourite. Recent meetings have been tight, but Brentford won 1-0 in February 2026 and 1-0 in August 2025.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.5700
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Both Teams To Score: Yes a 61.4% probability. The available odds of 1.5700 support that view. Aston Villa have scored four and conceded nine in five league games, while Brentford have scored ten and conceded four. Their recent head-to-head games include a 1-1 draw in September 2025 and a 3-1 Villa win in December 2024, suggesting chances at both ends despite Brentford's stronger start.
WonOver/Under1.6700
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 59.6% probability, with odds of 1.6700 available. Aston Villa's opening five league matches have produced 13 total goals, while Brentford's have produced 14. Villa's defensive record is a concern, and Brentford's unbeaten attack has already scored ten times. The recent series has also produced open results, including 3-1 and 3-3 scorelines, although a 2-1 or 2-2 game fits the overall probabilities best.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
6.55
Potential Winnings
$277.74
Brentford to win
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
35%
Home
Fair odd 2.89
24%
Draw
Fair odd 4.10
41%
Away
Fair odd 2.44
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 81%
Under 19%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 59%
Under 41%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 37%
Under 63%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 61%
No 39%
First Half Winner
28%
Home
39%
Draw
32%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
19%
6%
4%
Draw
10%
14%
14%
Away
2%
6%
25%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
5.0
7.3
5.8
2.9
1
6.9
10.7
9.1
4.7
2
4.9
7.7
6.6
3.5
3
2.3
3.9
3.1
1.8
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +12 | 19:7 | 21 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 11:5 | 18 | WWLWW | |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 23:5 | 16 | WWWWD | |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 17:13 | 13 | WWLDL | |
| 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 9:8 | 12 | WLWDW | |
| 6 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +5 | 13:8 | 10 | LDWDD | |
| 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9:6 | 10 | DLDWD | |
| 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 8:7 | 10 | LDWDD | |
| 9 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 8:7 | 9 | LDLDD | |
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 11:15 | 9 | LWLWL | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 10:14 | 8 | LLWLD | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 7:11 | 8 | WDWLD | |
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10:10 | 7 | DDDLD | |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 9:17 | 7 | LWDLW | |
| 15 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9:13 | 6 | WLLDD | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6:10 | 6 | WDLDD | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6:14 | 6 | LWWLL | |
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 7:10 | 5 | WLDDL | |
| 19 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5:9 | 5 | LLLWD | |
| 20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 6:14 | 4 | LLLLD |
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