EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Atalanta a 52% probability to beat Venezia, with the draw at 24% and a Venezia win at 23%.
The model estimates a 50% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Atalanta vs Venezia.
The model puts the probability that both Atalanta and Venezia score at 52%.
Atalanta vs Venezia kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 16:30.
Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction: Serie A Preview and Betting Tips
Welcome to Extratips for the Serie A clash between Atalanta and Venezia at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo on 12 October 2026, with kick-off at 16:30. The table gives Atalanta a clear edge: they sit 11th with six points, while Venezia are bottom with no points from five games.
The recent head-to-head record is one-sided. Atalanta have won four of the last five meetings, with one draw: 4-0, 2-0, 3-1, 2-0 and 0-0, listed chronologically from November 2021 to March 2025. Atalanta also enter on two straight wins, though their five-match record remains mixed at 2-0-3. Venezia have lost all five league games and have conceded 13 goals.
The main prices tell the story. Home is 1.4500, Both Teams to Score is Yes at 1.6100, and Over 2.5 is 1.8900. Atalanta's home control meets Venezia's defensive problems, but injuries add a twist. Hien, Sulemana, Kossounou and Raspadori remain concerns for the hosts, while Venezia are dealing with several absences, including Gianluca Busio.
Expect Atalanta to press early and attack the flanks. Venezia may sit deep, then seek breaks behind the home defence. The likeliest script is an Atalanta win with goals at both ends. A controlled home victory is another strong possibility, while a Venezia surprise remains the outsider scenario. The final lean is Atalanta to win, Both Teams to Score, and Over 2.5 goals.
Atalanta vs Venezia Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Atalanta a 52% win probability, Venezia 23%, and the draw 24%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 52%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 50%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 75
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Atalanta vs Venezia: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x21.4500
Atalanta to win.
The model gives Home a 52.1% probability. Atalanta are 11th with 6 points, while Venezia are 20th with 0 points after five matches. Atalanta have won the last four direct meetings, including a 2-0 victory in October 2024. The 1.4500 home price also reflects a strong market lean, although Atalanta's recent 2-0-3 record suggests this is not risk-free.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.6100
Both teams to score: Yes.
The model gives Yes a 52.1% probability. The price of 1.6100 points to a competitive goals market, despite Venezia's poor start and Atalanta's 5-7 goal record. Atalanta's recent defensive injuries, including Isak Hien and Odilon Kossounou, could create openings for Venezia, while the visitors have conceded 13 times in five matches.
WonOver/Under1.8900
Over 2.5 goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 50.5% probability. The 1.8900 odds imply a closely balanced goal line, but the matchup still offers attacking potential. Atalanta have conceded seven goals in five league games, while Venezia have allowed 13. Their last five meetings produced 12 total goals, with four reaching at least three goals.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
4.41
Potential Winnings
$170.61
Atalanta to win.
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes.
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals.
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
1
Value Pick
@ 1.66 Fair odd 1.62 · 1xbet
Value pick - the model rates this outcome more likely than the bookmaker.
Stake
1.13
Full Time Result
52%
Home
Fair odd 1.92
24%
Draw
Fair odd 4.08
23%
Away
Fair odd 4.28
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 74%
Under 26%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 50%
Under 50%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 28%
Under 72%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 52%
No 48%
First Half Winner
37%
Home
40%
Draw
23%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
28%
5%
3%
Draw
16%
15%
10%
Away
3%
6%
14%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
7.2
6.6
3.2
1.2
1
11.7
11.4
6.0
2.0
2
9.4
10.0
4.8
1.8
3
5.3
5.0
2.8
1.0
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 22:7 | 25 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +13 | 23:10 | 22 | WWWDW | |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +15 | 23:8 | 21 | WDWDD | |
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 17:8 | 20 | WWWDL | |
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 16:7 | 18 | WWDWD | |
| 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 17:13 | 14 | DWLWD | |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11:8 | 14 | WLDWL | |
| 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 14:14 | 13 | LWWWD | |
| 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 8:13 | 13 | LLLDW | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 13:10 | 11 | DLWDW | |
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 14:15 | 10 | DLWLL | |
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9:14 | 9 | LWLLW | |
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8:10 | 8 | WLWDL | |
| 14 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 14:22 | 8 | LLLDL | |
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 15:18 | 7 | LWLWL | |
| 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 6:13 | 7 | WLWLD | |
| 17 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 9:18 | 4 | LLLLL | |
| 18 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 9:19 | 4 | LLLDW | |
| 19 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 5:15 | 4 | LLLWL | |
| 20 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -11 | 6:17 | 3 | LWLLL |
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