EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Atlético de Madrid a 63% probability to beat Osasuna, with the draw at 23% and a Osasuna win at 14%.
The model estimates a 52% probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna.
The model puts the probability that both Atlético de Madrid and Osasuna score at 44%.
Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 17:00.
Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna prediction
Welcome to Extratips for this La Liga clash in Madrid. Atlético host Osasuna on 16 September 2026, 17:00, at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. The market leans the home side, and our model agrees with a strong edge for Atlético.
The top odds are 1.4800 for Home, 1.9500 for BTTS No, and 2.1000 for Under 2.5. That shape tells a clear story: Atlético should have control, Osasuna may struggle to score, and the game could stay tight for long spells.
Atlético’s home power is the big factor. Osasuna will likely sit deeper and look for set pieces or counters. If Atlético strike first, the tempo may slow fast. That makes a narrow home win, with few goals, the most natural path.
This is a match where patience matters. Atlético have the edge in quality, depth, and home rhythm. Osasuna need a near-perfect away display to change that.
Likely script: Atlético pressure, Osasuna defend hard, and the scoreboard stays modest. This looks like a home win with a low total.
Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Atlético de Madrid a 63% win probability, Osasuna 14%, and the draw 23%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 56%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Under 2.5 at 52%, indicating a lower-scoring affair is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 84
TV Channels
Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x21.4800
Atlético de Madrid to win
The model gives Home a 62.3% probability, which is the top outcome. Atlético are the stronger side at the Metropolitano, and the odds also point their way at 1.4800. With the home edge and a clear class gap, they are the likelier winners.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.9500
Both teams to score: No
The model gives No a 55.6% probability, so it is the top call here. Atlético often control games at home, while Osasuna usually face long spells without the ball. That fits a tight match where one side may be shut out.
LostOver/Under2.1000
Under 2.5 goals
The model gives Under 2.5 a 51.6% probability, making it the preferred option. Atlético’s home control and Osasuna’s likely cautious approach point to a low-score game. The head-to-head profile also supports a match with few chances.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
6.06
Potential Winnings
$253.03
Atlético de Madrid to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: No
Both Teams To Score / No
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Under 2.5
#ad
*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
63%
Home
Fair odd 1.59
23%
Draw
Fair odd 4.34
14%
Away
Fair odd 7.08
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 72%
Under 28%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 48%
Under 52%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 27%
Under 73%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 44%
No 56%
First Half Winner
38%
Home
44%
Draw
18%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
34%
4%
1%
Draw
20%
16%
7%
Away
4%
4%
9%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
8.7
4.8
1.7
0.8
1
14.5
9.5
3.9
1.1
2
12.6
9.4
3.9
1.0
3
7.6
5.3
2.4
0.8
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid
Osasuna1
Atlético Madrid2
12 May 26FT!
Osasuna1Atlético Madrid2Atlético Madrid vs OsasunaAtlético Madrid1Osasuna0
18 Oct 25FT!
Atlético Madrid1Osasuna0Osasuna vs Atlético MadridOsasuna2Atlético Madrid0
15 May 25FT!
Osasuna2Atlético Madrid0Atlético Madrid vs OsasunaAtlético Madrid1Osasuna0
12 Jan 25FT!
Atlético Madrid1Osasuna0Atlético Madrid vs OsasunaAtlético Madrid1Osasuna4
19 May 24FT!
Atlético Madrid1Osasuna4Osasuna vs Atlético MadridOsasuna0Atlético Madrid2
28 Sep 23FT!
Osasuna0Atlético Madrid2Atlético Madrid vs OsasunaAtlético Madrid3Osasuna0
21 May 23FT!
Atlético Madrid3Osasuna0Osasuna vs Atlético MadridOsasuna0Atlético Madrid1
29 Jan 23FT!
Osasuna0Atlético Madrid1Osasuna vs Atlético MadridOsasuna0Atlético Madrid3
19 Feb 22FT!
Osasuna0Atlético Madrid3| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 31:7 | 21 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16:7 | 16 | WWWLW | |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 9:7 | 16 | DWWWL | |
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 18:8 | 15 | LWWLW | |
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 10:9 | 13 | LWWDL | |
| 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11:6 | 11 | DLLWW | |
| 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10:8 | 10 | DLDWW | |
| 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 9:13 | 10 | WLWDW | |
| 9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 13:12 | 8 | WWLLL | |
| 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 7:6 | 8 | DDWWL | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 4:7 | 8 | WLDDL | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11:16 | 8 | DWLWL | |
| 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 6:13 | 8 | DLLLW | |
| 14 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8:6 | 7 | WDDDL | |
| 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10:10 | 7 | LLWDL | |
| 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 11:21 | 7 | LLWLW | |
| 17 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8:12 | 5 | LLDWD | |
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11:17 | 5 | WLDLL | |
| 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4:13 | 4 | LWLLL | |
| 20 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3:12 | 3 | LLDDL |
October 9, 2026
Málaga vs Espanyol
Málaga
Espanyol
19:00
MálagaEspanyolOctober 10, 2026
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
12:00
Rayo VallecanoAthletic ClubDeportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid
Deportivo AlavésAtlético de Madrid
14:15
Deportivo AlavésAtlético de MadridFC Barcelona vs Getafe
FC Barcelona
Getafe
16:30
FC BarcelonaGetafeReal Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Madrid
Villarreal
19:00
Real MadridVillarrealOctober 11, 2026
Elche vs Celta de Vigo
Elche
Celta de Vigo
12:00
ElcheCelta de VigoReal Sociedad vs Deportivo A Coruña
Real Sociedad
Deportivo A Coruña
14:15
Real SociedadDeportivo A CoruñaReal Betis vs Osasuna
Real BetisOsasuna
16:30
Real BetisOsasunaRacing Santander vs Valencia
Racing Santander
Valencia
19:00
Racing SantanderValenciaOctober 12, 2026
Levante vs Sevilla
Levante
Sevilla
19:00
LevanteSevilla