Our model makes the Home outcome the top pick, giving Leverkusen a 57.1% probability of winning this Europa League opener, clearly higher than the draw at 22.4% and away win at 20.5%. Leverkusen come into the group stage as one of the seeded sides, playing at BayArena, where they recently hammered Union Berlin 4–0 and generally score freely at home. Celje arrive as underdogs from a weaker league and have far less European experience at this level, especially away to top Bundesliga opposition. With bookmakers also pricing the home win very short at 1.1800, both the model and the market point to a home victory being the most likely outcome, even if no result is ever guaranteed in football.

Our model makes BTTS Yes the top outcome, at 51.1% compared to 48.9% for No, so it leans slightly toward both sides finding the net. Leverkusen’s recent matches have been full of goals, with high-scoring wins like the 4–0 against Union Berlin and a 3–2 defeat at Elversberg, and their attack usually creates plenty of chances at home. Celje, while clear underdogs, showed in their domestic league and qualifying ties that they can score on the road when given space, and they are likely to get counterattacking chances once Leverkusen push numbers forward. The BTTS Yes odds around 1.7500 also suggest the market expects a decent chance of both teams scoring, which fits well with our model’s slight edge toward a goal from each side.

Our model rates Over 2.5 as the top outcome with a 54.0% probability, ahead of Under 2.5 at 46.0%, so it expects a game with at least three goals more often than not. Leverkusen have been involved in open, attacking matches, with recent data showing a strong trend toward high totals and many of their games going over 2.5 goals. At home in Europe, they often play on the front foot, especially against smaller clubs, which can lead to big scores if they convert early chances. Celje may struggle defensively against this level of opposition, but they can still contribute a goal, and even if they do not, Leverkusen’s attack alone is capable of clearing a 2.5 line. The market price of 1.2800 on Over 2.5 also signals that odds compilers expect a goal-heavy encounter, in line with our model’s edge to the over.