The model gives Home a 66.6% probability, while the listed odds are 1.2000. Benfica lead the Europa League phase with three wins from three, 10 goals scored and only two conceded. Lech Poznań sit near the bottom with one point, one goal scored and nine conceded. Benfica have also won both previous meetings, including a 4-0 home victory in 2020. Their stronger form, home advantage and superior attacking quality make a home win the clearest outcome.

The model gives Yes a 52.2% probability, compared with odds of 1.9500. Benfica are the stronger side and should create several chances, but recent information notes that they have not kept a clean sheet in nine matches. Lech have struggled badly, yet their need for points may encourage a more open approach. The two previous meetings produced goals for both sides in the 4-2 match, although Benfica won 4-0 in Lisbon. A Benfica victory with a Lech reply is a reasonable scenario.

The model gives Over 2.5 a 60.0% probability. No exact 2.5 goal-line price is listed, so the odds field is unavailable. Benfica have scored 10 goals in three league-phase matches, including 4-1 against Celtic and 4-1 at Omonia. Lech have conceded nine goals in three games, including four against Bayer Leverkusen. Those figures, plus Benfica's attacking strength and Lech's defensive problems, support at least three goals.