The model gives Benfica a 75.3% probability of winning. Benfica are second with 16 points from seven matches, while Vitória Guimarães sit 14th with five points. Benfica have scored 22 goals and conceded seven, compared with Vitória’s five goals scored and eight conceded. Recent form also favors the hosts, with Benfica at 5-1-1 and Vitória at 1-2-4. Benfica have dominated this head-to-head, winning 31 meetings to Vitória’s three, with seven draws. The 1.25 home odds reflect that strong gap.

The model gives Both Teams To Score: No a 56.2% probability. Vitória Guimarães have scored only five goals in seven league matches, while Benfica have conceded seven and are expected to control possession at home. The recent form records point to a stronger Benfica defence and a limited Vitória attack. The 1.80 odds for No support a match where Benfica can win without conceding, such as 2-0 or 3-0.

The model gives Over 2.5 a 57.3% probability. Benfica’s 22 goals in seven matches show clear attacking power, and their home advantage should create pressure from the opening whistle. Vitória’s defensive record is modest, with eight goals conceded, while the large head-to-head advantage suggests Benfica often find ways through. The available goal odds are for different lines, so no exact Over 2.5 price is provided. A 3-0 Benfica win fits both this selection and the No BTTS prediction.