Tennis Betting Strategies

Last updated 14 October 2020

How to bet on tennis: search and follow events

As for sports betting, tennis offers a simpler profitability to the bettor, and this by several aspects. On the one hand, bets on the winner of the match have only two possible results and not three as for football; and on the other hand, the matches always end with a winner without having the opportunity to go to an extension, as is the case for the NBA. Another important factor for which professional bettors like tennis is that there are always matches somewhere in the world, 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. The winning bets for tennis are based on three basic fundamentals, which are not different from those on which bets are based in other sports:

Know the players

Knowing ATP and WTA players is quite easy compared to other sports. For football, having total control of almost all the teams in the world is a much more complicated task, and that would imply a much greater dedication.

In this sport, player transitions are slow, which means that from one year to the next changes of shape of the players are gradual, except in exceptional cases or cases of injury. When new potential stars enter the circuit, they do it step by step so that the old glories disappear slowly. Therefore, it is difficult for a tennis player who has been number 1 in the last 3 years, to start suddenly losing games easily in an unjustified manner; or so for an unknown player number 400 in the ATP standings to reach a grand slam final. These drastic shape changes occur in team sports where changes in personnel or technical direction may affect their performance. A clear example would be the arrival of Diego Pablo Simeone as a coach at Atlético de Madrid or the incredible 15/16 season of Leicester FC in the Premier League.

Money management

The management of the bankroll is a basic pillar for any bettor, especially if you consider betting as a way to earn money professionally.

Discipline

The discipline is the golden rule of sports betting, 50 € won in 3 bets during 6 hours of work can evaporate in 1 minute due to a lack of discipline.

Tennis tournaments

Professional tennis for men:

There are three groups in the men's tennis professional competition: the ATP circuit, where the most important tournaments are played and where the best players participate, the ATP Challenger circuit, which could look like the second division in other sports and the ITF FUTURES tournaments, which are the first step on the tennis ladder of the highest level. In the ATP circuit, there are 4 Grand Slam tournaments. These are special tournaments because of their importance, their amounts in prizes but also to have rules slightly different from those of the other tournaments of the circuit. These Great Slams are the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the USA Open.

The most important Grand Slam tournaments are cataloged as ATP1000, and there are 9 throughout the season. Some of the most prestigious are the American Indian Wells, Miami, and Cincinnati. Secondly, the ATP500s are tournaments that have front-line players and are played in top-level facilities. Some of these tournaments are Dubai, Queens Club, or China. ATP250 tournaments are the lowest level ATP circuit. These are tournaments that do not usually see many top10 players, but many of them take the opportunity to score points and win trophies because they can participate as seeds, although they are not among the best. These are very interesting tournaments to bet. Finally, once a year, the finals of the World Tour are played in London, with the 10 players having scored the most points in the year of competition.

Professional women's tennis:

Is distributed very similar but with different nomenclature. It coincides with the Grand Slam, where the mixed doubles category is also played. The other professional circuit tournaments are divided into First, which are analog with the ATP1000, ATP500, and ATP250. Also, there are 32 other international events, seven 125K WTA tournaments, and the WTA TOUR finals in London.

Tennis betting markets

In every tennis match and depending on the bookmaker as well as the specific importance of the match, a wide variety of markets are offered in which to bet both pre-match and live. These are some of the markets you should know to bet on tennis:

1. Winner (s)

Just who will win the match. As we said, they are not worth a draw, so it's a choice between two. With good knowledge of the professional circuit and the current state of the players, this market is the simplest and the most efficient. Although for that you will have to bet on low odds.In this tennis market, any odds higher than 1.50 mean a risky bet, which means that the level and physical condition of the two athletes are very similar. It is very common for games with odds of 1.66 for tennis player A and 2.20 for tennis player B to be exchanged if, for example, tennis player B interrupts the first service to the tennis player A. This is the market we recommend to start betting on tennis and always before the start of the match. If you are not very familiar with how it works and do not have a deep understanding of the status of players in the game, live betting is not recommended.

2. Bet for a set

This is where you have to give the result of sets. It is a market that is used for a specific situation. When one of the two players is superior to the other and the odds for his victory are less than 1.15, the odds for his victory with an accurate score of 2-0 would be around 1.30, which makes the bet more interesting.

3. More / Less games

This is a particularly complicated market in tennis, it is a question of determining if there will be more or less a specific number of games. It is complicated by the scoring system of this sport, there can be only 2 sets with more than 22.5 games and there can be 3 sets with less than 18.5 games.

4. More / Less sets

In the men's Grand Slam and Davis Cup, the games are played at 5 sets. The + 3.5 market is a very successful one in these tournaments since in many cases tennis players take a break to save the energy that such matches and tournaments require. Except in clearly unbalanced games, +3.5 sets is a very efficient market.

5. Winner of the set

Once you know the circuit and its players well, you will know that there are players who are struggling to "recover" even if they take control later and win the game. It is a market to take advantage of these situations, by attributing the victory of the first set to the non-favourite player, who has high odds. It is also a useful market to recover the bet and the expected profits faster than if you bet for the game since the costs to win the set are generally similar to winning the match.

6. Winner of the tournament

A betting market a bit long, but in many cases can be very profitable. Thorough knowledge of the tournament and its participants is essential, as well as a little patience.

7. Live betting

These are bets in which you can earn a lot more money, but that requires extreme control of many factors that influence the game and the bookmaker mechanism with respect to the movement of odds. Here are some examples of ways to enjoy live betting:

Tiebreaks are a good advantage to make live bets, the parameters that govern a tie break are not necessarily the same as those governing a match, the favourite to win a match should not be exactly the same. This is not taken into account by bookmakers. In general, the favourite to win a tie-break is the best in service of both players. The key to betting on the winner of a tie-break is to see the statistics of the set and to check who has achieved more aces and more points with the first service. If you watched the match, (if you bet live, it is imperative that you watch it or at least follow the score), you can guess who will win the tie-break for the results of each game.
Back to the score. If the player you consider as a favourite has lost the first set, but you have signs that his game has improved, this is the right time to bet also.

The best tennis betting strategies:

As in any sports discipline, the strategy to follow is something of the utmost importance, strategy and discipline must be your two best allies. Let's review some of the best strategies for winning your tennis bets.

Favourites who win tournaments

Tennis sometimes gives surprises, but in a much lower percentage than with other major sports. It is possible that a tennis player ranked 12 losses with another one ranked 140. These things happen. However, it is very likely that the favourite wins a tournament. Especially when it's a Grand Slam or tournament of the highest level. Today, betting on the victory of Novak Djokovic or Serena Williams before the start of the tournament is a good idea.

Find fake favorites

Bookmakers choose their favourites largely because of their position in the standings, especially between 10 and 50, there are players who have climbed a lot to finish a good year but are currently in moments of very bad shape, even because of their position in the standings, they will participate as seeds in a tournament that will give them the status of favourites. Having total control of the competition will make you discover these fake favourites and enjoy the high odds offered by his opponent.

Service vs Return of Service

Understanding the importance of serving and returning service in tennis means understanding everything. Service is the only time in the game in which one player has an advantage over the other, once the ball is in play, both players have the same weapons. A big server has a great advantage a priori in a tennis match, this advantage can only be overcome by a great player able to counter the services. The history of tennis has taught us that the best tennis players, those who have won the number 1 over the years, have always been better at countering a service than doing good service. Identifying players who are good servers and those who are big returners can be of great help for "more / less number of games/sets" bets and especially for live betting markets like "Winners of the Game" and "Winner of the tie-break". Nowadays, players such as J. Isner or I. Karlovic are favourites to win a tie break unless they have big opponents with a good return like N. Djokovic or R. Nadal.