EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 49% probability to win away against Celta de Vigo, with the draw at 24% and a Celta de Vigo win at 27%.
The model estimates a 56% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise.
The model puts the probability that both Celta de Vigo and Union Saint-Gilloise score at 56%.
Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise kicks off on Thursday 05 November 2026 at 20:00.
Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise: Europa League Prediction
Welcome to Extratips for the Europa League clash at Abanca-Balaídos on 5 November 2026, kicking off at 20:00. Union Saint-Gilloise arrive in Vigo with seven points from three matches and sit sixth in the league phase. Celta have three points and rank 25th, so the hosts need a strong response to keep their campaign alive.
The best three prices are Celta to win at 1.9500, Union to win at 3.2500, and Over 2.5 goals at 1.6600. The market respects Celta's home edge, but the table and the model point toward the Belgian visitors. Union also won the previous meeting 2-1, the only listed direct encounter, so a five-match head-to-head sample is unavailable.
Celta's recent home form and Union's away record should be checked close to kick-off. Injuries may matter too: Carl Starfelt, Miguel Román, and Jones El-Abdellaoui are listed out for Celta, while Kevin Mac Allister and Ross Sykes are doubts or unavailable for Union. That could weaken both defensive units.
The key storyline is simple: Celta need points, while Union can play with greater freedom. Expect pressure from the hosts, quick Belgian transitions, and chances at both ends. Our model gives Union the edge, with Away, Both Teams To Score: Yes, and Over 2.5 goals as the main selections.
Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Celta de Vigo a 27% win probability, Union Saint-Gilloise 49%, and the draw 24%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 56%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 56%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 85
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Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x23.2500
Union Saint-Gilloise to win.
The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 48.9% chance of winning, ahead of Celta Vigo at 27.0% and the draw at 24.1%. Union lead the Europa League table with 7 points from three matches, while Celta have 3 points. The away price is 3.2500, suggesting a competitive upset angle despite Celta's home advantage. Union already won the previous meeting 2-1, which adds weight to the away selection.
Both Teams To Score1.6100
Both teams to score: Yes.
The model gives Both Teams To Score — Yes a 55.9% probability. The available odds are 1.6100, and the recent European meeting finished 2-1 to Union Saint-Gilloise. Celta should create chances at Balaídos, while Union's stronger league-phase position points to a confident attacking display. This also fits the expected away win with a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline.
Over/Under1.6600
Over 2.5 goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 56.2% probability, making it the preferred total-goals outcome. The listed odds are 1.6600. The earlier 2-1 meeting already cleared this line, and the model expects an open contest with both sides scoring. A 2-1, 1-2, or 2-2 result would all support this selection.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
8.69
Potential Winnings
$384.30
Union Saint-Gilloise to win.
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes.
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals.
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
27%
Home
Fair odd 3.69
24%
Draw
Fair odd 4.15
49%
Away
Fair odd 2.05
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 79%
Under 21%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 56%
Under 44%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 34%
Under 66%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 56%
No 44%
First Half Winner
22%
Home
39%
Draw
39%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
13%
5%
4%
Draw
9%
13%
18%
Away
2%
5%
32%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
5.7
9.1
7.8
4.4
1
6.4
10.9
9.5
5.2
2
3.9
6.7
5.8
3.3
3
1.8
2.7
2.2
1.4
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 10:2 | 9 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 8:0 | 9 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 9 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 7 | WDW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 7 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 9:5 | 7 | DWW | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6:2 | 6 | WWL | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | LWW | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5:6 | 6 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4:3 | 5 | DWD | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 8:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 8:5 | 4 | DLW | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5:3 | 4 | LDW | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3:4 | 4 | LWD | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1:3 | 4 | WLD | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 5:8 | 4 | WDL | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 3:6 | 4 | DLW | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4:3 | 3 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4:5 | 3 | LWL | |
| 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | WLL | |
| 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | LLW | |
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | LWL | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 4:7 | 3 | LLW | |
| 29 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 2:7 | 1 | DLL | |
| 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1:6 | 1 | LLD | |
| 31 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 2:9 | 1 | LDL | |
| 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1:9 | 1 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 2:7 | 0 | LLL | |
| 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 1:6 | 0 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3:9 | 0 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 2:11 | 0 | LLL |
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