At a glance
The statistical model gives Celtic a 56% probability to beat Ferencvárosi, with the draw at 22% and a Ferencvárosi win at 22%.
The model estimates a 60% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Celtic vs Ferencvárosi.
The model puts the probability that both Celtic and Ferencvárosi score at 58%.
Celtic vs Ferencvárosi kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 19:00.
Extratips: Celtic vs Ferencvárosi Match Prediction & Betting Tips
Welcome to Extratips and a big Europa League night at Celtic Park. On 17 September 2026, Celtic host Ferencvárosi in Glasgow in a key group-stage clash.
Celtic arrive in strong domestic form, sitting 1st in their league with 16 points from 6 games and a run of four wins and a draw. Ferencvárosi travel from Hungary in decent shape too, currently 4th in NB I with around 10–11 points and only one loss.
Bookmakers see this as a home‑leaning game. The standout prices are:
- Celtic Home win at 1.69
- Draw at 4.08–4.20
- Ferencvárosi Away win at 4.33–4.56
These odds back up the idea that Celtic are favourites, but not untouchable.
Head‑to‑Head and Recent Form
These sides know each other from recent European campaigns. In the last three meetings:
- Celtic 1–2 Ferencvárosi (Champions League qualifying, 2020)
- Celtic 2–0 Ferencvárosi (Europa League group, 2021)
- Ferencvárosi 2–3 Celtic (Europa League group, 2021)
No match ended level, both teams scored in two of three, and two games went over 2.5 goals. The pattern is clear: this fixture often produces open football and chances at both ends.
Celtic’s last five home games show a strong record, with several wins, few goals conceded, and plenty scored. Ferencvárosi’s last five away matches include three wins, one loss, and at least one big victory, proving they travel well and carry threat.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Celtic strengths:
- Powerful home crowd and high pressing at Celtic Park.
- Varied attack with wide players and mobile forwards.
- Strong domestic defence, allowing few clear chances.
Celtic weaknesses:
- Occasionally exposed to quick counters when full‑backs push high.
- Set‑piece defending can be shaky under heavy pressure.
- At times wasteful in front of goal in big European ties.
Ferencvárosi strengths:
- Dangerous in transition, with pace on the break.
- Flexible attacking shape, able to press or sit deep.
- Good recent away results in the league, scoring freely.
Ferencvárosi weaknesses:
- Defence can struggle against sustained pressure and crosses.
- Midfield sometimes loses control against high‑tempo sides.
- Conceding in bunches when they fall behind early.
Key Factors and Storylines
Team news and fitness will matter. Celtic’s rotation options allow fresh legs and tactical tweaks, while Ferencvárosi may rely more on their core starting XI. Any missing centre‑back or key midfielder on either side could tilt the balance.
Two interesting angles for this preview:
- Revenge and control: Celtic will remember that 1–2 home loss in 2020 and want to show how far they’ve come since, especially after the later wins.
- Ferencvárosi’s away courage: The Hungarian champions often play without fear on the road; if they attack here, we could see another classic, end‑to‑end European tie.
Betting View and Match Scenarios
From this analysis, several bets stand out:
- Celtic to win.
- Both teams to score.
- Over 2.5 goals.
- Celtic to win and BTTS.
- Celtic to score 2 or more goals.
Comparing the teams, Celtic look stronger overall, especially at home, with more depth and a sharper defence. Ferencvárosi, though, are closer in attack than the odds may suggest, and they have already shown they can score at Celtic Park.
Possible match scenarios:
- High‑scoring Celtic win (likelihood: high): Celtic dominate most phases, Ferencvárosi still grab a goal.
- Tight Celtic win without BTTS (likelihood: medium): Celtic control the game, keep it 2–0 or 1–0.
- Open draw with late drama (likelihood: low‑to‑medium): Both sides trade goals but neither can land the knockout blow.
Taken together, our model and the stats point towards a Celtic win in a lively match with goals and chances for both sides.
Celtic vs Ferencvárosi Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Celtic a 56% win probability, Ferencvárosi 22%, and the draw 22%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 58%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 60%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
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Celtic vs Ferencvárosi: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Celtic to win at Celtic Park.
Our model makes Celtic the clear favourite here, giving the Home outcome a 60.0% probability, which is broadly in line with the market price of 1.69 implying around 59–60%. Celtic come into this Europa League tie top of their domestic table with 16 points from 6 games, and a strong run of form featuring four wins and one draw in their last five league outings. Ferencváros are also in decent shape, sitting 4th in NB I with 10–11 points and only one defeat in six matches, but they have been more vulnerable away, with one recent loss on the road. Historically, Celtic have the edge head‑to‑head, winning two of the last three meetings and scoring six goals to Ferencváros’ four, including a 2–0 home win in the 2021 Europa League group stage. Recent home results for Celtic show a high win rate and solid defensive numbers, while Ferencváros’ away games tend to open up, which should suit Celtic’s attacking style. With the Parkhead crowd behind them, better overall squad depth, and sharper domestic form, a home victory is the most logical outcome based on our model and the odds.
Both teams to score: Yes.
Our model gives BTTS Yes a 56.8% probability, which lines up with the BTTS market where Yes is priced at 1.53, suggesting traders also expect goals at both ends. The recent head‑to‑head record supports this view: across three meetings since 2020, both teams have found the net in two of them, and those clashes have averaged over three goals per game. Celtic are free‑scoring domestically, with 13 goals in 6 league matches, and tend to play on the front foot at home, especially in Europe. Ferencváros bring plenty of attacking threat too, scoring 8–10 goals in their first six league fixtures and showing they can hurt teams away from home, as seen in their recent 3–0 win at Győri ETO. While Celtic’s defence is usually solid at Celtic Park, Ferencváros’ pace and direct play on the counter make at least one away goal very plausible. Combining strong attacking trends from both sides, an historically open head‑to‑head, and a model edge above 50%, BTTS Yes fits a lively, end‑to‑end match script.
Over 2.5 total goals in the match.
Our model points firmly towards a high‑scoring game, giving Over 2.5 goals a 60.3% probability. That is slightly higher than typical market prices around even money for higher goal lines, indicating a modest edge on the overs. The history between these clubs backs that up: two of the last three meetings have gone over 2.5, with an average of roughly 3.3 goals per match, including a 3–2 thriller and a comfortable 2–0 home win for Celtic. Domestically, Celtic’s attack is in excellent rhythm, averaging more than two goals per league game, while Ferencváros also create and convert enough chances, with a positive goal difference and several multi‑goal performances away from home. Celtic Park European nights often produce fast starts and long attacking spells, which can stretch games and lead to late goals as legs tire. Coupled with our BTTS Yes view, a Celtic win in a match featuring at least three goals feels like a coherent and realistic scenario, well supported by both the model and the teams’ recent scoring patterns.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
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*Odds available at time of writing.










