The home win is offered between 2.22 and 2.33, so we take a mid‑range 2.28 as fair reference. That implies roughly a 43–45% chance, slightly higher than Rayo’s away price band of 2.80–3.06. Alavés have been more stable at home than Rayo away, defending compact and conceding few big chances. Market probabilities in the odds data give the home side around 43–45% and the away side near 33–36%, matching the idea that the hosts have a small but clear edge. In a balanced game, home advantage and tighter defending tilt it toward a narrow Alavés win rather than a draw or away upset.

The BTTS market lists Yes at 1.75 versus No at 2.00, which suggests the bookies slightly favour both sides finding the net. Alavés at home often create enough chances, especially from crosses and set pieces, while Rayo’s attacking style with high full‑backs usually produces shots but also leaves space behind. The Result/BTTS combos show competitive prices for Home/Yes (4.75) and Away/Yes (5.50), reinforcing the idea that a 1–1 or 2–1 type score is realistic. With both teams needing points and not always perfect at the back, a goal each matches the overall odds picture.

Across the goal line market, Over 2.5 goals trades around 1.91–1.99, while Under 2.5 sits slightly shorter near 1.80–1.89. Taking 1.95 for the Over is a reasonable average. The prices show a very tight line, close to 50–50, so we lean towards Over because it fits with BTTS Yes at 1.75. If both sides are expected to score and Alavés are slight favourites, common outcomes are 2–1 either way. Rayo’s open style away from home often leads to stretched second halves, with more chances as legs tire. That profile supports at least three goals rather than a cagey 0–0 or 1–0. Overall, Over 2.5 aligns with our BTTS and home‑win angle, pointing to a 2–1 Alavés victory.