Our model gives Sporting CP as the Away win a 52.4% probability, which is clearly higher than the 20.5% chance for Famalicão and the 27.1% chance for the draw. Sporting have dominated this matchup over time, winning 14 of the last 19 meetings and losing only twice, with a 34–14 aggregate score. Famalicão have struggled in recent head‑to‑heads, going winless in the last five against Sporting, including a 1–0 defeat earlier in 2026. Recent league form also points toward the visitors: Sporting come into this season as a title contender, while Famalicão have yet to win in their first five league games, with three draws and two losses and several dropped points from winning positions. Sporting’s away record over their last five league trips is strong, with three wins, one draw and one loss, and they have been efficient at closing out tight games. Famalicão’s last five home matches show just one win, two draws and two defeats, with only modest scoring output and some late goals conceded. All this, combined with the model’s 52.4% edge for the away side and bookmaker odds around 1.43 suggesting a clear favourite, supports Sporting CP to win, even if an upset is always possible in a hostile away ground.

Our model gives No for Both Teams To Score a 54.0% probability, slightly higher than the 46.0% for Yes, so the edge leans toward at least one side failing to score. The recent head‑to‑head record backs a more one‑sided scoring pattern: Sporting have often kept Famalicão quiet, winning the last meeting 1–0 in February 2026 and regularly controlling territory and chances. Across the last five direct clashes, Sporting have multiple clean sheets while Famalicão rarely score more than once, reflecting a gap in attacking quality. Famalicão’s recent league form shows only moderate scoring, with results like 0–0, 1–0, 1–2 and 1–1, and they managed just two goals in their most recent 2–2 draw away to Estrela Amadora despite long spells of pressure. Sporting’s defence, on the other hand, has been one of the best in the league, conceding less than a goal per game over their last 19 head‑to‑head matches against Famalicão. Bookmaker prices near 1.95 on BTTS No also suggest a very live chance that only Sporting get on the scoresheet, or that this finishes in a low‑scoring clean sheet either way.

Our model gives Under 2.5 goals a 55.9% probability, compared with just 44.1% for Over 2.5, so it expects a tighter, lower‑scoring game. Head‑to‑head data support this view: the most recent meeting ended 1–0 to Sporting, and several of the last five clashes have finished with two goals or fewer, often decided by a single strike. Sporting’s approach in tricky away fixtures is usually controlled and methodical rather than high‑risk, and they are comfortable winning 1–0 or 2–0 when in front. Famalicão’s attack has not been free‑flowing this season; they have yet to win in five league games and often rely on set pieces or isolated counterattacks to create chances, which limits the overall goal volume. Their last five home games have produced a mixed scoring pattern but feature more tight games than high‑scoring ones. On the road, Sporting’s last five away results also show several matches landing under this line, as their strong defensive structure keeps scorelines in check. With bookmaker odds around 1.95 on Under 2.5 and our model leaning 55.9% to that side, a 0–1, 0–2 or 1–1 type of match looks more likely than a goal fest, fitting well with the Away win and BTTS No predictions.