Our model makes Bayern the clear favorite here, giving the Home win a 53.1% probability, compared with only 22.4% for the draw and 24.6% for an Arsenal upset away win. Bayern are usually strong at the Allianz in Europe, pressing high and turning chances into goals, while Arsenal often play a brave, open style that can leave gaps against elite attacks. Recent Champions League campaigns show Bayern going deep almost every season, while Arsenal still look like a rising side testing themselves at this level. With home advantage, greater depth in the squad, and the model leaning firmly toward Bayern, backing the Home win fits both the numbers and the football logic of this matchup.

Our model expects an open game, giving BTTS Yes a strong 63.9% probability versus only 36.1% for No. Bayern’s attacking unit at home usually creates plenty of clear chances, but they also tend to leave space when full-backs push high, which suits Arsenal’s quick forwards on the break. In recent European nights both sides have shown a habit of trading blows rather than shutting games down, especially in knockout-style or high-profile group ties. Given Bayern’s firepower, Arsenal’s improved attacking patterns, and the high model probability, a goal for each side is a very realistic outcome.

Our model points clearly toward a lively scoreline, giving Over 2.5 goals a 68.5% probability compared with just 31.5% for Under 2.5. Bayern at home in the Champions League usually play front-foot football, pressing high and creating several big chances across ninety minutes. Arsenal, under a more adventurous setup, tend to keep the ball and commit numbers forward, which can both create scoring chances and leave them exposed. When you combine this with the strong BTTS Yes signal, the stage is set for at least three goals rather than a cagey chess match. With the model heavily favoring Over 2.5 and both teams built to attack, backing Over 2.5 goals is consistent with a Bayern home win and both sides getting on the scoresheet.