Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb slight favourites here, giving the away win a 41.7% probability, compared to 34.7% for Hapoel Be’er Sheva and 23.7% for the draw. The bookmakers point the same way, with Away priced around 1.95 while Home is near 3.30–3.60 and Draw about 3.70, showing the market leans clearly toward the Croatian side. Dinamo arrive from a strong European run, with recent big wins in qualifiers and a habit of scoring multiple goals away from home, while Hapoel have been far more up and down, including heavy defeats like 1–4 against Maccabi Tel Aviv and a 5–2 extra‑time loss at Sabah. The head‑to‑head also leans Dinamo: in their two previous meetings, Dinamo have one win and one draw, scoring 7 goals to Hapoel’s 2, which underlines the gap in European experience and firepower. On neutral ground in Bucharest, Hapoel lose some of their usual home edge, and Dinamo’s deeper squad, sharper attack and more stable form give them the edge in what should still be a competitive tie.

Our model gives Both Teams To Score Yes a 59.0% probability, higher than the 41.0% for No, and that lines up with the BTTS market where Yes trades around 1.57. Hapoel Be’er Sheva matches have been open lately: they scored and conceded in games like the 2–2 against Hapoel Haifa, the 2–1 win over Sabah, and the 5–2 extra‑time defeat in the return leg, showing both attacking intent and defensive frailty. Dinamo Zagreb, meanwhile, come in with a very strong attack that has put three or more past opponents in European qualifiers and domestic games, but they have also shown they can concede in high‑tempo ties. The head‑to‑head data fits the same pattern: across their two past meetings, there were 9 total goals, with Dinamo scoring 7 and Hapoel 2, and both sides found the net in one of those clashes. On a neutral pitch, with both teams keen to start the Europa League group stage on the front foot, an open game where each side creates chances looks likely, and BTTS Yes also dovetails well with a Dinamo win in a high‑scoring contest.

Our model makes Over 2.5 the preferred goal line, assigning it a 60.5% probability against 39.5% for the Under, and the odds support that view, with Over 2.5 sitting around 1.61 while Under 2.5 is closer to 2.20–2.26. Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s recent results scream goals: 1–4 vs Maccabi Tel Aviv, 2–2 vs Hapoel Haifa, 2–1 and then 2–5 after extra time against Sabah, so four of their latest big games went comfortably over this line. Dinamo Zagreb also tend to play above 2.5 in Europe, as seen in scorelines like 5–0 against Kauno Zalgiris and 3–2 against Thun, where their attack dictates the pace and creates several clear chances. The previous meetings between these sides produced 9 goals in total, an average of 4.5 per game, with Dinamo’s 7–2 aggregate dominance showing how quickly this matchup can open up. Put together with our other picks—Dinamo to win and BTTS Yes—the most logical script is a lively clash where both teams score and Dinamo’s extra quality up front tips the game over the 2.5 line.