At a glance
The statistical model gives Lecce a 40% probability to beat Genoa, with the draw at 26% and a Genoa win at 34%.
The model estimates a 53% probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in Lecce vs Genoa.
The model puts the probability that both Lecce and Genoa score at 51%.
Lecce vs Genoa kicks off on Sunday 01 November 2026 at 17:00.
Lecce vs Genoa Prediction: Serie A Preview and Betting Tips
Welcome to Extratips for the Lecce vs Genoa match prediction. The game starts at 17:00 on 1 November 2026 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
Lecce enter this meeting 11th with nine points, while Genoa are 17th with four. Both sides have won twice and lost three of their last five league matches, but Lecce's recent 3-0 win at Udinese offers a stronger attacking signal. Genoa's latest sequence includes a 0-2 loss to Roma and a 1-2 defeat by Fiorentina.
The last five meetings were 1-0 Lecce, 0-0, 2-1 Genoa, 0-0 and 2-1 Genoa. That pattern points to close games and limited scoring. Genoa lead the wider head-to-head record, with seven wins to Lecce's two, plus five draws, yet Lecce have home advantage and more points this season.
Injuries could shape the contest. Lecce may miss Tiago Gabriel, Medon Berisha and Willem Geubbels, while Genoa have several doubts, including Franz-Ethan Meichtry and Lorenzo Colombo. The top prices are Home at 2.6200, Draw at 3.1000 and Under 2.5 at 1.5800.
Match Outlook
Lecce should press early, using the Via del Mare crowd to set the tempo. Genoa may keep their lines compact and look for quick breaks. The model favors a home win at 41.1%, Both Teams To Score at 50.4%, and Under 2.5 goals at 54.3%. The likeliest script is a tense match decided by one key moment. A 2-1 Lecce victory is the standout scoreline, with 1-0 another credible route.
Lecce vs Genoa Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Lecce a 40% win probability, Genoa 34%, and the draw 26%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 51%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Under 2.5 at 53%, indicating a lower-scoring affair is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
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Lecce vs Genoa: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lecce to win
The model gives Home a 41.1% probability, the highest 1X2 outcome. Lecce sit 11th with nine points, while Genoa are 17th with four. Lecce's stronger recent record and home setting offset Genoa's historical head-to-head edge, though the 2.6200 home price shows this is a close contest.
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Yes a 50.4% probability, narrowly ahead of No at 49.6%. Lecce's recent five-match run produced seven goals, while Genoa's produced four, and both teams have shown defensive gaps. The 1.9500 odds also reflect a very balanced market, making goals at both ends a plausible outcome despite the low total-goals outlook.
Under 2.5 goals
The model gives Under 2.5 a 54.3% probability, making it the preferred total-goals outcome. Recent meetings have included 1-0, 0-0, 2-1, 0-0 and 2-1, while the market offers 1.5800 on Under 2.5. A tight Lecce win, such as 2-1 or 1-0, fits the combined evidence.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
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*Odds available at time of writing.








