At a glance
The statistical model gives Manchester City a 41% probability to win away against Liverpool, with the draw at 23% and a Liverpool win at 35%.
The model estimates a 61% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Manchester City.
The model puts the probability that both Liverpool and Manchester City score at 61%.
Liverpool vs Manchester City kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30.
Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction: Premier League Clash at Anfield
Welcome to Extratips for a huge Premier League meeting on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield, with kick-off set for 15:30.
Form and league picture
City arrive as leaders after five straight wins and 15 points. Liverpool sit sixth on nine points, unbeaten but drawing three of their opening five matches. That contrast gives the visitors extra momentum, while Anfield remains a major test.
The recent head-to-head record favours City. Their last five meetings were Liverpool 1-2 City, City 3-0 Liverpool, City 0-2 Liverpool, Liverpool 2-0 City, and Liverpool 1-1 City. Both sides have scored in several of these games, although the results remain finely balanced.
City have the sharper attack, with 13 goals already. Liverpool have scored seven and conceded four, showing control but less cutting edge. Reports list several Liverpool absences, while City have no injuries reported. That could matter late in the match.
Expect a fast start, pressing in midfield, and chances at both ends. City’s unbeaten run makes them the model’s narrow favourite, but Liverpool’s home support can change the rhythm quickly. The strongest angles are an away win, both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals. A 1-2 City victory is the most likely script, though football at Anfield rarely follows a simple plan.
Liverpool vs Manchester City Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Liverpool a 35% win probability, Manchester City 41%, and the draw 23%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 61%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 61%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
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Liverpool vs Manchester City: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Manchester City to win
The model gives Manchester City a 41.3% probability of winning. City lead the table with 15 points after five wins, while Liverpool are sixth with nine points after two wins and three draws. City also won the latest league meeting 2-1 and the most recent cup clash 4-0. The 2.1400 away price reflects a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage.
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Both Teams To Score — Yes a 61.2% probability. Liverpool have scored in four of their first five league games, while City have scored 13 goals during a perfect five-win start. Recent meetings have also produced goals at both ends, including Liverpool's 1-2 defeat in February. The 1.5000 price supports an open contest.
Over 2.5 total goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 60.9% probability. Manchester City have scored 13 goals and conceded five in five matches, while Liverpool have scored seven and conceded four. Their recent head-to-head record includes 4-0, 1-2, and 3-0 scorelines, pointing toward an attacking game. The 1.5500 odds also make Over 2.5 the market favourite.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
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*Odds available at time of writing.









