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At a glance
The statistical model gives Lorient a 42% probability to beat Toulouse, with the draw at 26% and a Toulouse win at 32%.
The model estimates a 50% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Lorient vs Toulouse.
The model puts the probability that both Lorient and Toulouse score at 55%.
Lorient vs Toulouse kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 18:45.
Lorient vs Toulouse preview
Welcome to Extratips and to this Ligue 1 clash in Lorient. Lorient host Toulouse at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir on 12 September 2026, and the numbers point to a tight match. Our model gives Lorient a small edge, but Toulouse are close enough to keep this lively. The best odds lean toward Home at 2.3700, BTTS Yes at 1.7000, and Over 2.5 at 1.8800. That mix hints at a fast game with goals at both ends.
Both teams need points early in the season, so the mood should be sharp. Lorient will want to use home energy and start on the front foot. Toulouse can hurt them if they leave space in behind. The safest read is a narrow home win, but a draw is also in play if the tempo drops.
Key angles: home edge, both teams to score, and a likely open second half.
Possible scenarios: Lorient edge it, both teams score, or the game ends level after a tense battle.
I’ll lean Lorient to win 2-1, with goals expected and little room for error. It's a fine line, so expect a close and competitive night in Brittany.
Lorient vs Toulouse Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Lorient a 42% win probability, Toulouse 32%, and the draw 26%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 55%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 50%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 85
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Lorient vs Toulouse: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lost1x22.3700
Lorient to win
The model gives Home a 41.8% probability, which is the top outcome in 1X2. Lorient also have the edge of playing at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, and the market keeps them slightly ahead of Toulouse. With the h2h split likely tight and both teams close in strength, home advantage can tip it.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.7000
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Yes a 55.2% probability, so BTTS is the top call. The odds also point to goals on both sides, and this fits a game where neither team looks fully dominant. Recent balance in the matchup suggests chances at both ends.
WonOver/Under1.8800
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 50.3% probability, making it the narrow top outcome. The price is close to even, which matches a match that could open up if either side scores first. With BTTS also favored, a 2-1 type game looks very live.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
7.57
Potential Winnings
$328.73
Lorient to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
42%
Home
Fair odd 2.40
26%
Draw
Fair odd 3.79
32%
Away
Fair odd 3.13
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 75%
Under 25%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 50%
Under 50%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 29%
Under 71%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 55%
No 45%
First Half Winner
32%
Home
45%
Draw
23%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
22%
5%
2%
Draw
15%
19%
11%
Away
2%
5%
17%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
7.4
8.1
5.2
2.0
1
10.0
12.2
7.5
3.1
2
6.9
8.7
5.8
2.5
3
3.2
4.3
2.8
1.0
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
Toulouse vs Lorient
Toulouse1
Lorient0
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Toulouse1Lorient0Lorient vs ToulouseLorient1Toulouse1
09 Nov 25FT!
Lorient1Toulouse1Lorient vs ToulouseLorient1Toulouse2
28 Apr 24FT!
Lorient1Toulouse2Toulouse vs LorientToulouse1Lorient1
03 Dec 23FT!
Toulouse1Lorient1Lorient vs ToulouseLorient0Toulouse1
23 Apr 23FT!
Lorient0Toulouse1Toulouse vs LorientToulouse2Lorient2
21 Aug 22FT!
Toulouse2Lorient2Toulouse vs LorientToulouse0Lorient1
31 Oct 18FT!
Toulouse0Lorient1Lorient vs ToulouseLorient1Toulouse1
08 Feb 17FT!
Lorient1Toulouse1Toulouse vs LorientToulouse3Lorient2
10 Dec 16FT!
Toulouse3Lorient2| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 8:3 | 13 | WDWWW | |
| 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 10:2 | 11 | WDWDW | |
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 8:3 | 11 | WDWWD | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 8:4 | 10 | LWWDW | |
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 8:9 | 10 | LWWWD | |
| 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 8:7 | 8 | WWLDD | |
| 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 6:5 | 7 | WDLWL | |
| 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:10 | 7 | LDWWL | |
| 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9:9 | 6 | WDDLD | |
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 7:12 | 6 | WWLLL | |
| 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 7:8 | 5 | LLWDD | |
| 12 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5:6 | 5 | LDWLD | |
| 13 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 7:9 | 5 | WDLDL | |
| 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 3:6 | 5 | WLDLD | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9:9 | 4 | LDLLW | |
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4:11 | 4 | LLLWD | |
| 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 7:8 | 3 | LLLLW | |
| 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 4:7 | 2 | LDLDL |
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