EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Olympiacos F.C. a 43% probability to win away against Olympique Marseille, with the draw at 22% and a Olympique Marseille win at 35%.
The model estimates a 60% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C..
The model puts the probability that both Olympique Marseille and Olympiacos F.C. score at 59%.
Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C. kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 19:00.
Marseille vs Olympiacos Prediction: Europa League Preview
Welcome to Extratips for the Marseille vs Olympiacos match prediction. The Europa League clash starts on 15 October 2026 at 19:00 at Stade Vélodrome. Marseille arrive after a heavy 4-1 defeat at Beşiktaş, while Olympiacos recently beat Jagiellonia 2-1 in Europe and Levadiakos 1-0 domestically.
The market lists Marseille at 2.1000, the draw at 3.7000, and Olympiacos at 3.2000. Those prices make the hosts favourites, but our model gives Olympiacos the highest win probability at 42.8%. Marseille sit 17th in the listed domestic table with three points, while Olympiacos are 13th in the Europa League standings with three points; both teams need a result to improve their position.
The last four meetings were split two wins each, with no draws. Chronologically, Marseille lost 0-1 in 2011, won 1-0 later that year, lost 0-1 in October 2020, then won 2-1 in December 2020. Marseille’s recent home form is volatile, with wins over Strasbourg and losses to Paris FC and PSG. Olympiacos’ recent away run is steadier, including wins at Levadiakos and Asteras Tripoli.
The key story is Marseille’s weakened squad. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is expected to miss time, Timothy Weah is suspended, and defensive injuries remain a concern. Olympiacos can attack those gaps through quick transitions. A lively Vélodrome could lift Marseille, but the model points toward an away win, goals from both sides, and Over 2.5. Possible scorelines include 1-2 or 2-3.
Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C. Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Olympique Marseille a 35% win probability, Olympiacos F.C. 43%, and the draw 22%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 59%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 60%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 69
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Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C.: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x23.2000
Olympiacos to win.
The model gives Olympiacos a 42.8% probability of victory, ahead of Marseille at 34.9%. The market offers 3.2000, while Olympiacos have started the Europa League with a 2-1 win and also won their latest listed league match. Marseille lost 4-1 away to Beşiktaş and have several defensive concerns, including injuries to Derek Cornelius, C.J. Egan-Riley, and Nayef Aguerd. The head-to-head record is mixed, with both teams showing two wins in four meetings, so the away edge comes mainly from stronger recent European momentum.
Both Teams To Score1.5700
Both teams to score: Yes.
The model gives Both Teams To Score a 58.7% probability. The odds are 1.5700, and Marseille’s recent matches have included open results such as a 2-3 home loss to Paris FC and a 1-4 defeat at Beşiktaş. Olympiacos have also shown attacking promise with a 2-1 Europa League win over Jagiellonia, while Marseille should benefit from home support at Stade Vélodrome. Their four historical meetings produced balanced results, making goals at both ends a reasonable match pattern.
Over/Under1.6500
Over 2.5 goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 60.0% probability, and the listed odds are 1.6500. Marseille’s recent form includes several high-scoring games, with three goals against Paris FC and five goals in the defeat at Beşiktaş. Olympiacos have combined a solid defensive record with the ability to score in Europe, and a match featuring both teams scoring would need only one further goal to clear the line. Marseille’s defensive absences and Olympiacos’ counter-attacking threat support an entertaining game.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
8.29
Potential Winnings
$364.48
Olympiacos to win.
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes.
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals.
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
35%
Home
Fair odd 2.87
22%
Draw
Fair odd 4.47
43%
Away
Fair odd 2.34
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 81%
Under 19%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 60%
Under 40%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 39%
Under 61%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 59%
No 41%
First Half Winner
21%
Home
39%
Draw
40%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
16%
4%
3%
Draw
11%
14%
14%
Away
2%
5%
31%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
4.8
7.4
6.5
3.2
1
6.7
9.9
8.4
5.1
2
4.7
7.1
5.9
3.5
3
2.4
4.2
3.3
1.5
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 5:0 | 3 | W | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 4:0 | 3 | W | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 3 | W | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 3 | W | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3:0 | 3 | W | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3:1 | 3 | W | |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2:0 | 3 | W | |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2:0 | 3 | W | |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2:0 | 3 | W | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2:1 | 3 | W | |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2:1 | 3 | W | |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2:1 | 3 | W | |
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2:1 | 3 | W | |
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1:0 | 3 | W | |
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1:0 | 3 | W | |
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1:0 | 3 | W | |
| 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 | D | |
| 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 | D | |
| 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 | D | |
| 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 | D | |
| 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1:2 | 0 | L | |
| 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1:2 | 0 | L | |
| 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1:2 | 0 | L | |
| 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1:2 | 0 | L | |
| 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0:1 | 0 | L | |
| 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0:1 | 0 | L | |
| 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0:1 | 0 | L | |
| 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 1:3 | 0 | L | |
| 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0:2 | 0 | L | |
| 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0:2 | 0 | L | |
| 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0:2 | 0 | L | |
| 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 1:4 | 0 | L | |
| 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 1:4 | 0 | L | |
| 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0:3 | 0 | L | |
| 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0:4 | 0 | L | |
| 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0:5 | 0 | L |
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