At a glance
The statistical model gives Bologna a 45% probability to win away against Parma, with the draw at 29% and a Parma win at 26%.
The model estimates a 61% probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in Parma vs Bologna.
The model puts the probability that both Parma and Bologna score at 43%.
Parma vs Bologna kicks off on Saturday 07 November 2026 at 17:00.
Parma vs Bologna Prediction: Serie A Preview and Betting Tips
Welcome to Extratips for the Emilia-Romagna derby at Stadio Ennio Tardini on 7 November 2026. Parma host Bologna at 17:00, with both clubs needing a strong result for different reasons.
Form, Standings and Odds
Available table data places Bologna around 11th with 9 points, while Parma are 19th with 5. Parma have scored only five goals in nine matches and carry a negative goal difference. Bologna are more balanced, with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded. The main odds point the same way: Bologna are 2.0600, Under 2.5 is 1.7400, and Home is 3.5600. These prices suggest an away edge in a controlled match.
Recent derby meetings have produced contrasting results. Parma won 2-0 in one recent clash, but Bologna answered with a 3-1 victory at the Tardini. That latest result featured a Castro brace and a Miranda goal after Parma struck first. The pattern shows a tense rivalry, though Bologna have shown the sharper attacking response.
Match Outlook
Parma's strengths are home energy, counterattacks and set-piece threat. Their weaknesses are limited scoring, fragile defending and pressure when chasing games. Bologna offer better balance, quick wide play and stronger recovery after conceding. Their main concerns are away consistency, defensive lapses and possible fatigue from a busy schedule.
A narrow Bologna win is the leading scenario. A low-scoring draw remains a live danger, while a Parma win looks less likely. The model selects Away at 45.1%, No for both teams to score at 56.6%, and Under 2.5 goals at 60.6%. Potential angles include Bologna to win, Bologna or draw, Under 2.5, No BTTS, and a 0-1 correct score. With Parma's attack struggling, Bologna's greater balance could decide this derby.
Parma vs Bologna Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Parma a 26% win probability, Bologna 45%, and the draw 29%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 57%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Under 2.5 at 61%, indicating a lower-scoring affair is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
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Parma vs Bologna: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Bologna to win.
The model gives Bologna a 45.1% probability of winning, the highest 1X2 outcome. Bologna sit above Parma in the table, with recent standings data placing them around 11th on 9 points and Parma 19th on 5 points. The odds also favor Bologna at 2.0600. Recent meetings have been mixed, but Bologna won the latest reported derby 3-1 at the Tardini, while Parma's poor goal record makes the away side the stronger pick.
Both teams not to score.
The model gives No a 56.6% probability, making it the leading BTTS outcome. Parma have scored only 5 goals in nine league matches, while Bologna have conceded 12 and scored 12. The recent 3-1 derby shows Bologna can create chances, but Parma's low attacking output and the model's expected tight game support No.
Under 2.5 total goals.
The model gives Under 2.5 a 60.6% probability, clearly above Over 2.5 at 39.4%. Parma's nine-match record includes only 5 goals scored and 15 conceded, while Bologna's matches have produced 24 total goals. The 1.7400 price also reflects a lower-scoring expectation, and a Bologna win without both teams scoring fits this selection.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
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*Odds available at time of writing.



