At a glance
The statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 44% probability to beat Deportivo Alavés, with the draw at 29% and a Deportivo Alavés win at 27%.
The model estimates a 59% probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés.
The model puts the probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Deportivo Alavés score at 46%.
Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:00.
Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés Preview
Welcome to Extratips and this La Liga clash at Estadio de Vallecas. Rayo arrive as the slight home lean, with the model backing a tight game and few goals. The strongest signals are Home, No in BTTS, and Under 2.5.
Rayo’s edge at home should matter, but Alavés can make this awkward. The market also points to caution, with the draw in play if the game gets stuck in midfield. Expect a scrappy battle, quick transitions, and long spells where one goal could decide it.
Best angles: home win, BTTS No, and under the goal line.
Rayo Vallecano to edge it in a low-scoring match.
Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Rayo Vallecano a 44% win probability, Deportivo Alavés 27%, and the draw 29%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 54%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Under 2.5 at 59%, indicating a lower-scoring affair is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 74
TV Channels
Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Rayo Vallecano to win
The model gives Home a 43.9% probability, which is the top 1X2 outcome. Rayo also have the clearer edge at Vallecas, and the odds market supports a home lean. Alavés are competitive, but the home side’s slight advantage fits a narrow win more than a draw or away upset.
Both Teams To Score: No
The model gives No a 51.7% probability, so this is the top BTTS pick. That lines up with a tight match profile, where Rayo’s home control and Alavés’ likely cautious approach can keep one side from scoring. The BTTS No price of 1.5700 also points to a low-scoring game.
Under 2.5 goals
The model gives Under 2.5 a 58.2% probability, making it the strongest total-goals call. A game with a home edge, modest scoring outlook, and little room between the teams often lands below three goals. The Under 2.5 odds of 1.8300 match that reading.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
#ad
*Odds available at time of writing.










