The model gives Home a 74.5% probability, and the market also makes Real Madrid a heavy favorite at 1.1100. At the Bernabéu, with the better squad and stronger home form, they should control the game. The head-to-head edge and current motivation point the same way.

The model gives No a 52.6% probability. Real Madrid are likely to press high and limit Rayo’s chances, while the recent matchup pattern also leans toward one-sided games. With the home side favored to keep control, a clean sheet for one team looks slightly more likely than both scoring.

The model gives Over 2.5 a 61.1% probability. Real Madrid’s strong attack and Rayo’s open style can push the total up, and recent direct meetings often produce chances. Even with the home side expected to win, the goal line still looks better for an open match.