EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 49% probability to beat Olympique Lyonnais, with the draw at 24% and a Olympique Lyonnais win at 27%.
The model estimates a 54% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais.
The model puts the probability that both Real Sociedad and Olympique Lyonnais score at 55%.
Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais kicks off on Thursday 05 November 2026 at 17:45.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: Europa League Prediction
Welcome to Extratips for the Europa League clash at Anoeta on 5 November 2026, kicking off at 17:45. Real Sociedad host Olympique Lyonnais in a key league-phase meeting. UEFA lists Sociedad 14th with four points, while Lyon are 12th with six, giving both sides plenty to chase.
Form and Match Angles
Sociedad arrive with real firepower after recent wins over Levante, Lillestrøm and Málaga. Their 6-0 European victory and 5-2 league success show how quickly they can turn pressure into goals. Lyon also bring attacking confidence after a 3-2 win over Crystal Palace. The main storyline is simple: Anoeta's energy against Lyon's European ambition.
The top three prices point toward a home result and goals: Real Sociedad 1.9400, Both Teams To Score — Yes 1.5300, and Over 2.5 goals 1.6200. The model gives Sociedad a 49.1% win chance, BTTS Yes 55.0%, and Over 2.5 goals 54.1%.
A high-likelihood scenario is a lively game with chances at both ends, ending 2-1 to Sociedad. A medium-likelihood outcome is a 2-2 draw if Lyon exploit spaces behind the home defence. A lower-likelihood script is a tight 1-0 match, especially if Lyon defend deep and slow the tempo.
There is no verified recent head-to-head record or complete venue-form sample available here, so those angles should not be overstated. Still, the available form, standings, odds and home advantage make Sociedad the narrow pick. Expect intensity, attacking intent and a proper European night in San Sebastián.
Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Real Sociedad a 49% win probability, Olympique Lyonnais 27%, and the draw 24%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 55%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 54%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
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Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x21.9400
Real Sociedad to win
The model gives Real Sociedad a 49.1% probability of winning, ahead of Lyon at 27.1% and the draw at 23.8%. Home advantage at Anoeta and recent attacking form support the Basque side. Sociedad sit 14th with 4 points in the league phase, while Lyon are 12th with 6 points, so both need a result. Recent form also points to an open contest, but the 1.9400 home price reflects Sociedad's stronger position in this matchup. No verified previous meetings or complete five-match venue splits are available, so those factors cannot be weighed reliably.
Both Teams To Score1.5300
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Both Teams To Score — Yes a 55.0% probability. Lyon have scored in their recent Europa League run, including a 3-2 win over Crystal Palace, while Sociedad have shown clear attacking power with recent victories by 6-0 and 5-2. The 1.5300 price also makes Yes the clear market favorite. With both teams chasing points and Sociedad favored rather than dominant, a 2-1 home win is a logical match script.
Over/Under1.6200
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 54.1% probability. Recent results suggest strong attacking momentum: Sociedad recorded 6-0 and 5-2 wins, while Lyon recently won 3-2 in Europe. The 1.6200 odds make Over 2.5 the leading totals option, and the expected BTTS outcome adds support for at least three goals. A lively European tie with Sociedad edging Lyon 2-1 fits the form and the model probabilities.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
4.81
Potential Winnings
$190.42
Real Sociedad to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
49%
Home
Fair odd 2.04
24%
Draw
Fair odd 4.21
27%
Away
Fair odd 3.69
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 77%
Under 23%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 54%
Under 46%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 32%
Under 68%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 55%
No 45%
First Half Winner
40%
Home
38%
Draw
22%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
31%
5%
2%
Draw
15%
13%
11%
Away
4%
5%
15%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.1
7.0
3.9
1.6
1
9.7
11.1
6.5
2.6
2
8.0
9.4
5.3
2.3
3
4.5
5.2
3.2
1.1
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 10:2 | 9 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 8:0 | 9 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 9 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 7 | WDW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 7 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 9:5 | 7 | DWW | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6:2 | 6 | WWL | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | LWW | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5:6 | 6 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4:3 | 5 | DWD | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 8:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 8:5 | 4 | DLW | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5:3 | 4 | LDW | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3:4 | 4 | LWD | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1:3 | 4 | WLD | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 5:8 | 4 | WDL | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 3:6 | 4 | DLW | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4:3 | 3 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4:5 | 3 | LWL | |
| 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | WLL | |
| 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | LLW | |
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | LWL | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 4:7 | 3 | LLW | |
| 29 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 2:7 | 1 | DLL | |
| 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1:6 | 1 | LLD | |
| 31 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 2:9 | 1 | LDL | |
| 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1:9 | 1 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 2:7 | 0 | LLL | |
| 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 1:6 | 0 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3:9 | 0 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 2:11 | 0 | LLL |
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