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At a glance
The statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 47% probability to win away against Schalke 04, with the draw at 25% and a Schalke 04 win at 28%.
The model estimates a 58% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05.
The model puts the probability that both Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 score at 56%.
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:30.
Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 prediction
Welcome to Extratips for the Bundesliga meeting between Schalke 04 and Mainz 05. The match starts at 13:30 on 17 October 2026 at the Veltins-Arena in Gelsenkirchen.
Mainz arrive in eighth place with seven points from five games. Schalke are 12th with five points from four matches, so both sides have clear motivation. Mainz have won three of their last four league games, including a 5-0 success at Hamburg and a thrilling 4-3 win at Borussia Mönchengladbach. Schalke have been steadier than spectacular, with wins over Union Berlin and recent friendly opponents, plus two 0-0 league draws.
The top prices point to a tight away edge: Mainz are 2.2400 to win, Schalke are 2.7400, and the draw is 3.4400. Goals also attract attention, with Both Teams To Score priced at 1.5000 and Over 2.5 at 1.5700.
Recent head-to-head records favour Mainz, including a 3-0 victory in the latest listed meeting. Mainz’s sharper attack is the key difference, while Schalke’s home crowd could make this a proper Bundesliga battle. The likely script is an open first half, with Mainz dangerous on the break and Schalke pushing for a response. A 1-2 away win fits the balance best, although 2-2 remains a lively alternative.
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Schalke 04 a 28% win probability, FSV Mainz 05 47%, and the draw 25%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 56%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 58%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 88
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Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x22.2400
Mainz 05 to win.
The model gives Mainz 05 a 40.5% probability of victory, the highest 1X2 outcome. Mainz sit eighth with seven points from five matches, while Schalke are 12th with five points from four. Mainz have also won three of their last four league games, including strong away results at Hamburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach. The 2.2400 away price reflects a narrow but clear edge, though Schalke’s home support keeps this contest close.
LostBoth Teams To Score1.5000
Both teams to score: Yes.
The model gives Both Teams To Score — Yes a 55.4% probability. Mainz have scored freely in recent wins, including 5-0 at Hamburg and 4-3 at Mönchengladbach, while Schalke have shown enough attacking threat in their recent victories. The 1.5000 price also points toward goals at both ends. Defensive gaps and Schalke’s need to respond at home support this selection.
LostOver/Under1.5700
Over 2.5 goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 55.3% probability. Mainz’s recent results include 4-3 and 5-0 wins, while Schalke’s recent schedule has produced open attacking moments despite two goalless draws. The 1.5700 odds suggest the market expects at least three goals. Mainz’s pace in transition and Schalke’s home ambition make a lively match more likely than a tight stalemate.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
5.28
Potential Winnings
$213.76
Mainz 05 to win.
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes.
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals.
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
28%
Home
Fair odd 3.51
25%
Draw
Fair odd 4.07
47%
Away
Fair odd 2.13
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 79%
Under 21%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 58%
Under 42%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 36%
Under 64%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 56%
No 44%
First Half Winner
27%
Home
39%
Draw
35%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
20%
5%
3%
Draw
9%
14%
13%
Away
2%
5%
29%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.3
8.2
6.8
4.4
1
6.3
10.7
8.3
5.2
2
4.1
6.9
5.7
3.2
3
1.9
2.8
2.5
1.6
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 27:8 | 18 | DWWDW | |
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 14:6 | 18 | DWDDW | |
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 18:10 | 16 | WLLWD | |
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +11 | 22:11 | 15 | WWLWL | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 17:14 | 15 | WWDDW | |
| 6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 18:16 | 13 | LLWWW | |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:16 | 13 | WLWLD | |
| 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17:17 | 10 | LLWLW | |
| 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18:15 | 9 | LDLDL | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 14:15 | 9 | WLLWL | |
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 14:16 | 9 | LWWLL | |
| 12 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9:12 | 9 | DDLWL | |
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6:9 | 9 | DWDLW | |
| 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6:16 | 9 | LWWWL | |
| 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 10:17 | 8 | LWLDW | |
| 16 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -12 | 7:19 | 7 | DDDWL | |
| 17 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 4:9 | 6 | LDLLD | |
| 18 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 11:22 | 4 | DWLLL |
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