EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 43% probability to beat Celje, with the draw at 25% and a Celje win at 32%.
The model estimates a 54% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz vs Celje.
The model puts the probability that both Sturm Graz and Celje score at 54%.
Sturm Graz vs Celje kicks off on Thursday 05 November 2026 at 20:00.
Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction: Europa League Preview and Betting Tips
Welcome to Extratips for the Europa League meeting between Sturm Graz and Celje. The match starts at 20:00 on 5 November 2026 at Merkur Arena in Graz.
Sturm arrive with useful home momentum. They beat Marseille 1-0 and Grazer AK 6-1 in their latest home games. Celje earned a lively 2-2 draw with Salzburg, but earlier suffered defeats against Omonia and Leverkusen. In the Europa League table, Sturm sit 20th with four points after three matches, while Celje are 31st with one point. Both sides still have plenty to play for.
The main prices point toward the hosts: Home is 1.5600, Over 2.5 is 1.6000, and Both Teams to Score—Yes is 1.6100. Sturm have won both recorded meetings, scoring five goals without reply, though the wider recent evidence suggests Celje can threaten.
The key storyline is clear: Austrian home strength against Slovenian resilience. Sturm's press and set pieces could control the match, while Celje may target quick breaks. A 2-1 Sturm Graz win looks the likeliest script, with a 1-1 draw the main danger. Expect a competitive night, attacking moments, and a strong Merkur Arena atmosphere.
Potential angles: Sturm's home record, Celje's counterattack, and the battle for valuable league-phase points. Conclusion: Home advantage gives Sturm the edge, but Celje's recent scoring makes goals at both ends possible.
Sturm Graz vs Celje Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Sturm Graz a 43% win probability, Celje 32%, and the draw 25%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 54%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 54%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 78
TV Channels
Sturm Graz vs Celje: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x21.5600
Sturm Graz to win
The model gives Home a 43.1% probability, making it the top 1X2 outcome. Sturm Graz have home advantage at Merkur Arena and recently beat Marseille 1-0 and Grazer AK 6-1. Celje drew 2-2 with Salzburg but lost 3-0 to Omonia and 2-0 at Leverkusen. The available home odds are 1.5600, while historical meetings also favor Sturm Graz.
Both Teams To Score1.6100
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Yes a 54.4% probability. Sturm Graz have attacking momentum after scoring six against Grazer AK, while Celje showed enough threat in their 2-2 draw with Salzburg. The quoted Yes odds are 1.6100. A 2-1 home win fits both the recent scoring patterns and the main match outlook.
Over/Under1.6000
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 54.0% probability. Sturm Graz's recent 6-1 league win and Celje's 2-2 draw with Salzburg point toward an open game. The available Over 2.5 odds are 1.6000. With both teams capable of scoring, three or more goals is a reasonable match script.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
4.02
Potential Winnings
$150.93
Sturm Graz to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
#ad
*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
43%
Home
Fair odd 2.33
25%
Draw
Fair odd 4.04
32%
Away
Fair odd 3.10
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 77%
Under 23%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 54%
Under 46%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 32%
Under 68%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 54%
No 46%
First Half Winner
31%
Home
40%
Draw
29%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
25%
4%
3%
Draw
13%
13%
12%
Away
2%
5%
22%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.6
7.2
4.8
2.3
1
9.5
11.3
7.1
3.0
2
7.1
8.5
5.3
2.6
3
3.9
4.1
2.8
1.4
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 10:2 | 9 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 8:0 | 9 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 9 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 7 | WDW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 7 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 9:5 | 7 | DWW | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6:2 | 6 | WWL | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | LWW | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5:6 | 6 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4:3 | 5 | DWD | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 8:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 8:5 | 4 | DLW | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5:3 | 4 | LDW | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3:4 | 4 | LWD | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1:3 | 4 | WLD | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 5:8 | 4 | WDL | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 3:6 | 4 | DLW | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4:3 | 3 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4:5 | 3 | LWL | |
| 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | WLL | |
| 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | LLW | |
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | LWL | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 4:7 | 3 | LLW | |
| 29 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 2:7 | 1 | DLL | |
| 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1:6 | 1 | LLD | |
| 31 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 2:9 | 1 | LDL | |
| 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1:9 | 1 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 2:7 | 0 | LLL | |
| 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 1:6 | 0 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3:9 | 0 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 2:11 | 0 | LLL |
November 4, 2026
Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C.
Rennes
Olympiacos F.C.
15:30
RennesOlympiacos F.C.November 5, 2026
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace
TSG Hoffenheim
17:45
Crystal PalaceTSG HoffenheimLillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň
Lillestrøm
Viktoria Plzeň
17:45
LillestrømViktoria PlzeňLevski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok
Levski Sofia
Jagiellonia Białystok
17:45
Levski SofiaJagiellonia BiałystokSparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth
Sparta Praha
AFC Bournemouth
17:45
Sparta PrahaAFC BournemouthReal Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais
Real Sociedad
Olympique Lyonnais
17:45
Real SociedadOlympique LyonnaisAnderlecht vs Salzburg
Anderlecht
Salzburg
17:45
AnderlechtSalzburgAC Milan vs Ferencvárosi
AC Milan
Ferencvárosi
17:45
AC MilanFerencvárosiNEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia
NEC Nijmegen
Omonia Nicosia
17:45
NEC NijmegenOmonia NicosiaSturm Graz vs Celje
Sturm Graz
Celje
20:00
Sturm GrazCelje