EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% probability to beat Troyes, with the draw at 25% and a Troyes win at 35%.
The model estimates a 54% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Toulouse vs Troyes.
The model puts the probability that both Toulouse and Troyes score at 56%.
Toulouse vs Troyes kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:15.
Toulouse vs Troyes: Ligue 1 Match Prediction
Welcome to Extratips for the Toulouse vs Troyes preview, set for Saturday, 24 October 2026, at 15:15 at Stadium de Toulouse. Toulouse sit 11th with nine points, while Troyes are 17th with four points. The visitors have lost their last five matches, scoring four and conceding 13. Toulouse have shown better balance, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last five.
Key Match Points
The market strongly favors Toulouse at 1.5200, while Both Teams To Score is priced at 1.6100 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.6200. Toulouse have dominated the recent league meetings, winning 3-0 and 4-1. Their last five home games show one win, while Troyes have won none of their last five away league matches. Troyes also face defensive absences, including Ismaël Boura, Anis Ouzenadji, Yacouba Koné, and Yvann Titi.
The main storyline is clear: Toulouse want to turn home control into points, while Troyes need a response before the relegation fight tightens. Toulouse’s attack should create chances, but their 11 goals conceded leave room for a reply. The likeliest script is a home win in an open game, with 2-1 or 3-1 realistic scorelines. Our three selections are Home, Both Teams To Score, and Over 2.5 goals.
Toulouse vs Troyes Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Toulouse a 39% win probability, Troyes 35%, and the draw 25%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 56%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 54%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 108
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Toulouse vs Troyes: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x21.5200
Toulouse to win.
The model gives Home a 39.5% probability, the highest 1X2 outcome. Toulouse have home advantage and a stronger recent profile, while Troyes sit 17th with four points and have lost their last five. The head-to-head record also favors Toulouse, who won the last two league meetings 3-0 and 4-1. The 1.5200 home price reflects clear market support, although the model expects a closer match than the odds suggest.
Both Teams To Score1.6100
Both teams to score: Yes.
The model gives Yes a 55.9% probability. Toulouse have scored 12 and conceded 11 in the league, showing both attacking threat and defensive gaps. Troyes have scored only four goals but have conceded 13, so their weaknesses may give the hosts chances while Toulouse’s recent record suggests they can allow openings. The available Yes odds are 1.6100.
Over/Under1.6200
Over 2.5 total goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 53.6% probability. Toulouse’s 12 goals scored and 11 conceded point to open games, while Troyes have conceded 13 in seven matches. Recent head-to-head results include Toulouse wins by 3-0 and 4-1, supporting a match with at least three goals. The listed Over 2.5 odds are 1.6200.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
3.96
Potential Winnings
$148.22
Toulouse to win.
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes.
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 total goals.
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
39%
Home
Fair odd 2.53
25%
Draw
Fair odd 3.97
35%
Away
Fair odd 2.83
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 77%
Under 23%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 54%
Under 46%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 32%
Under 68%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 56%
No 44%
First Half Winner
27%
Home
48%
Draw
24%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
20%
5%
3%
Draw
13%
18%
15%
Away
2%
5%
18%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.7
8.0
5.6
2.6
1
8.6
11.3
7.8
3.7
2
6.1
8.4
5.8
2.7
3
3.1
4.2
2.9
1.3
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 13:5 | 14 | WLWDW | |
| 2 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14:9 | 14 | WWWWL | |
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 12:7 | 14 | WLWDW | |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 10:5 | 14 | DWLWW | |
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 10:6 | 14 | LDWDW | |
| 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 15:14 | 13 | LWLWW | |
| 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 7:6 | 11 | WWLDW | |
| 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 14:11 | 10 | WWLDL | |
| 9 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +4 | 14:10 | 9 | WWLLL | |
| 10 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 13:10 | 9 | DWLLW | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 12:11 | 9 | WDWDL | |
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 11:17 | 9 | WLWWL | |
| 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 6:9 | 8 | LWWLD | |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 12:15 | 7 | LLLDW | |
| 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 9:15 | 7 | LLWDL | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 10:15 | 6 | LLWDD | |
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 5:16 | 4 | LLLLL | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5:11 | 2 | LLLDL |
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