Our model gives the Home win a 42.9% probability, slightly ahead of the away victory and the draw, which makes Viking the top-rated outcome here. Viking already showed they can hurt Dinamo in Zagreb, fighting back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 in the first leg, so confidence in the home camp should be high. At SR-Bank Arena, Viking’s recent home record in Europe and domestically has been strong, built on aggressive pressing and quick transitions that suit knockout football. Dinamo Zagreb bring big-game experience and quality, but they have looked vulnerable at the back when pressed high, as seen in that first-leg collapse after a flying start. With the tie level at 2-2 and everything on the line, Viking’s home crowd and attacking approach can tip a tight game their way, which aligns with both the model edge at 42.9% and the market odds around 2.23 for the home win.

Our model gives Yes for Both Teams to Score a 55.2% probability, making it the preferred outcome in this market. The first leg in Zagreb finished 2-2, and both sides created clear chances, showing that each attack can open up the opposing defence. Viking’s front line presses high and looks direct, which tends to produce chances but also leaves space behind for Dinamo’s technical forwards to exploit. Dinamo Zagreb, for their part, have enough creativity and set-piece threat to find at least one goal even away from home, especially in a must-score scenario with the tie finely balanced. The main BTTS line is priced around 1.61 for Yes, which matches our view that both teams are more likely to get on the scoresheet than not.

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 57.6% probability, so it clearly favours a game with at least three goals. The first leg already produced four goals in a frantic 2-2 draw, and both Viking and Dinamo Zagreb showed they are more comfortable going forward than sitting deep and defending for long spells. Viking at home are likely to play on the front foot again, pressing high and attacking with numbers, which tends to stretch matches and increase the total shots and big chances. Dinamo have the technical quality to punish any gaps, and if they fall behind, they will need to push hard for an equaliser, further boosting goal potential. The main goal-line sits at 2.5 with Over around 1.69, which fits with our model’s 57.6% edge and with an expected scenario of a 2-1 or 3-1 type scoreline rather than a cagey 1-0. Overall, a Viking win with both teams scoring and Over 2.5 goals forms a coherent and realistic match picture in this playoff second leg.