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At a glance
The statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 56% probability to win away against Aston Villa, with the draw at 22% and a Aston Villa win at 22%.
The model estimates a 61% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe.
The model puts the probability that both Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe score at 56%.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 19:00.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction: Champions League preview
Welcome to Extratips for the clash at Villa Park on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, kicking off at 19:00. Aston Villa began the league phase with a 3-2 win away to Club Brugge, while Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 with Roma. Villa sit ninth with three points, and Fenerbahçe are 19th with one, so both sides have clear reasons to push for a result.
The main prices point toward Villa: home win odds of 1.8200, draw odds of 3.4500, and away odds of 3.7500. Yet our model takes a different view, giving Fenerbahçe a 54.5% win probability. Goals also look likely, with Over 2.5 rated at 63.4% and Both Teams To Score at 58.6%.
There is little established history between the clubs. The only recorded meeting ended in a 1-0 Villa win away from home. Recent form is more encouraging for Villa, who beat Sevilla 3-1 and Tottenham 3-2, while Fenerbahçe beat Trabzonspor 2-0 and Eyüpspor 8-0. Villa's attack has pace and variety, but their defence has allowed two goals in each of their last two listed matches. Fenerbahçe bring confidence, though injuries remain a concern, including knee problems affecting Nuno Sangaré. The likely script is an energetic game, with both teams creating chances. Fenerbahçe could edge it 2-1, but a 2-2 draw is also a strong possibility.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Aston Villa a 22% win probability, Fenerbahçe 56%, and the draw 22%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 56%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 61%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 55
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Latest News For Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa vs. Fenerbahçe kicks off at 20:00 [GMT+1] on Wednesday, October 15, at Villa Park.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lost1x24.4500
Fenerbahçe to win
The model gives Fenerbahçe a 54.5% probability of winning. However, the available 4.4500 odds imply a much lower market chance. Villa won 3-2 at Club Brugge but conceded twice, while Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 with Roma and have shown strong recent scoring form. The model therefore favors the away side, though this remains a high-risk result.
LostBoth Teams To Score1.6600
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Both Teams To Score a 58.6% probability. Aston Villa scored three goals in their opening league-phase match but conceded two, while Fenerbahçe scored against Roma and have recently produced wins such as 8-0 and 2-0. The 1.6600 odds also support goals at both ends.
WonOver/Under1.6100
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 63.4% probability. Villa's 3-2 Champions League win and Fenerbahçe's open attacking displays point toward another lively contest. The 1.6100 odds reflect a strong expectation of at least three goals, while the BTTS Yes selection supports the same match pattern.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
11.89
Potential Winnings
$544.65
Fenerbahçe to win
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
1
Value Pick
@ 1.82 Fair odd 1.77 · cloudbet
Value pick - the model rates this outcome more likely than the bookmaker.
Stake
1.01
Full Time Result
22%
Home
Fair odd 4.55
22%
Draw
Fair odd 4.55
56%
Away
Fair odd 1.78
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 82%
Under 18%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 61%
Under 39%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 39%
Under 61%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 56%
No 44%
First Half Winner
18%
Home
37%
Draw
45%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
10%
4%
4%
Draw
8%
12%
18%
Away
1%
5%
39%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
5.0
8.5
8.1
5.6
1
5.0
9.6
9.1
6.2
2
2.9
5.5
5.6
4.2
3
1.4
2.2
2.1
1.4
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 14:5 | 9 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12:3 | 9 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12:7 | 9 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 10:5 | 9 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 7:4 | 9 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 6:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 11:6 | 6 | LWW | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 10:5 | 6 | WLW | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9:5 | 6 | WLW | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9:6 | 6 | WWL | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 7:4 | 6 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | WLW | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 10:5 | 5 | DDW | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 8:5 | 4 | WLD | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4:3 | 4 | DWL | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4:3 | 4 | LWD | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 4 | WLD | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 3 | LWL | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 5:6 | 3 | WLL | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 5:6 | 3 | LLW | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 5:7 | 3 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6:9 | 3 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6:9 | 3 | WLL | |
| 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3:6 | 3 | LWL | |
| 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 4:8 | 3 | LWL | |
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3:7 | 3 | LLW | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 4:9 | 3 | LWL | |
| 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3:8 | 3 | LLW | |
| 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3:8 | 3 | LWL | |
| 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 3:9 | 2 | DLD | |
| 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4:7 | 1 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 5:9 | 1 | LDL | |
| 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 2:6 | 0 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 4:10 | 0 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 1:13 | 0 | LLL |
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Aston Villa vs. Fenerbahçe kicks off at 20:00 [GMT+1] on Wednesday, October 15, at Villa Park.