Carlos Marques

Carlos Marques

Mathematics Teacher and Systems Development Technician

My name is Carlos Marques, and I am a mathematics teacher and systems development technician.

A few years ago, I began bringing together two great passions: football and mathematics. Since then, I have been developing my own mathematical and statistical models to analyze and try to predict what may happen on the pitch.

I am the creator of the Matemática das Apostas channel, where I share these analyses and probabilities for matches in leagues around the world.

I am from Sergipe in northeastern Brazil and support Confiança.

My goal is to unite a passion for sport with mathematics and turn numbers and statistics into information that can help people who follow the world of sports betting.

Articles by Carlos Marques

Extratips Signals

Premier League picks and probabilities for Matchweek 7

Matchweek 7 of the Premier League promises some exciting clashes in one of the most competitive football leagues in the world. With teams fighting for the title, chasing European qualification spots or trying to move away from the relegation zone, every match could make a difference in the standings. To help you analyse the upcoming games, I've put together the probabilities for the main outcomes of each match, based on team stats and recent form. Just remember that while the numbers can help us spot good opportunities, no prediction is 100% reliable. Let's take a look at the matches and see what the best opportunities are! Matchweek picks Match Pick --------------------------- ------------------------ Everton x Chelsea Everton to win or draw Brentford x Liverpool Over 1.5 goals Fulham x Hull Over 1.5 goals Manchester City x Ipswich Manchester City to win Newcastle x Aston Villa Over 1.5 goals Bournemouth x Sunderland Over 1.5 goals Brighton x Crystal Palace Brighton to win Leeds x Manchester Utd Over 1.5 goals Nottingham x Arsenal Arsenal to win Tottenham x Coventry Over 1.5 goals Everton x Chelsea 17 October 11:30 GMT Everton are currently 5th in the Premier League with 10 points and are still unbeaten this season. They have a 62.5% performance rating over their last five matches. They host Chelsea, who sit in 6th place, also with 10 points. Chelsea's performance rating over their last five games is 50%. According to my model, Everton have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating As for goals, we could see plenty of them in this game. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is Everton to win or draw. Brentford x Liverpool 17 October 14:00 GMT Brentford are currently 4th in the Premier League with 10 points and remain unbeaten in the competition. They have a 62.5% performance rating over their last five matches. They host Liverpool, who sit in 9th place with 9 points and have a 55% performance rating over their last five games. According to my model, Brentford have a better chance of winning this match, as shown in the image below. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating When it comes to goals, there's a good chance we'll see plenty in this game. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. Fulham x Hull 17 October 14:00 GMT Fulham are bottom of the Premier League table, sitting in 20th place with just 2 points and a goal difference of -4. They are yet to win a league match this season and have a performance rating of just 22.5% over their last five games. Fulham host Hull City, who are 8th with 9 points but haven't won in their last four matches. Their performance rating over the last five games is 42.5%. According to my model, Hull have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. However, I don't really trust teams with a performance rating below 60% over their last five matches. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating As for goals, there's a good chance we'll see over 1.5 goals in this game. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. Manchester City x Ipswich 17 October 14:00 GMT Manchester City are top of the Premier League table with 18 points and a goal difference of +11. They have a perfect 100% performance rating over their last five matches. City host Ipswich Town, who sit in 10th place with 9 points and have a 50% performance rating over their last five games. According to my model, Manchester City have a better chance of winning this match, as shown in the image below. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating When it comes to goals, this looks like a game where we could see plenty of them. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is Manchester City to win. Newcastle x Aston Villa 17 October 16:30 GMT Newcastle are currently 11th in the Premier League with 8 points. They have a performance rating of just 42.5% over their last five matches. They host Aston Villa, who sit in 16th place with only 5 points. Villa's performance rating over the last five games is 47.5%. According to my model, this should be a close match, with a draw looking like the most likely result, as you can see in the image below. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating As for goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. Bournemouth x Sunderland 18 October 13:00 GMT Bournemouth are currently 18th in the Premier League with just 3 points. They are still looking for their first league win of the season and have a performance rating of only 22.5% over their last five matches. They host Sunderland, who sit in 17th place with just 4 points. Sunderland's performance rating over the last five games is even lower, at 17.5%. According to my model, this should be a balanced match, with a draw looking like the most likely outcome, as shown in the image below. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating When it comes to goals, there's a good chance we'll see over 1.5 goals. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. Brighton x Crystal Palace 18 October 13:00 GMT Brighton are currently 3rd in the Premier League with 13 points and have the best attack in the competition, with 18 goals scored. They have won their last three league matches and have an 82.5% performance rating over their last five games. Brighton host Crystal Palace, who sit in 12th place with 7 points. Palace have a 57.5% performance rating over their last five matches. According to my model, Brighton have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating As for goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My favourite pick for this match is Brighton to win. Leeds x Manchester Utd 18 October 13:00 GMT Leeds are currently 7th in the Premier League with 9 points. They have a performance rating of just 45% over their last five matches. They host Manchester United, who sit in 13th place with 6 points. United also have a 45% performance rating over their last five games. According to my model, Leeds are slight favourites to win this match, as shown in the image below. However, I'm not too confident backing a team that hasn't been performing particularly well recently. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. Nottingham x Arsenal 18 October 15:30 GMT Nottingham Forest are currently 15th in the Premier League with just 5 points and a goal difference of -3. They have a performance rating of only 32.5% over their last five matches. Forest host Arsenal, who sit in 2nd place with 15 points, just three behind league leaders Manchester City. Arsenal have a 75% performance rating over their last five games. According to my model, Arsenal are favourites to win this match, as you can see in the image below. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating As for goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is Arsenal to win. Tottenham x Coventry 19 October Tottenham are second from bottom in the Premier League, sitting in 19th place with just 3 points. They are still looking for their first league win of the season and have a performance rating of only 32.5% over their last five matches. They host Coventry City, who sit in 14th place with 6 points and are coming off two consecutive Premier League wins. Coventry have a 55% performance rating over their last five games. According to my model, this should be a close match, with a draw looking like the most likely result, as you can see in the image below. Match result probabilities and recent performance rating When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely. Team goal probabilities and total match goals My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. Bet slip ready for this matchweek

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BRASILEIRÃO - SÉRIE A (MATCHDAY 28)

Matchday 28 of the Brasileirão brings fixtures that could prove decisive for the direction of the competition, whether in the title race, the battle for a place in international competitions, or the fight against relegation. To help with the analysis, I bring you the probabilities for the main outcomes in each match - always remembering that, no matter how good the model is, no prediction is 100% reliable. Let's check out the matches and look for the best opportunities! [19/09] (16:00) - Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense Atlético-MG are currently 7th in the league with 39 points. Over their last 5 Brasileirão matches, they have recorded a performance rate of 67.5%. Galo host Chapecoense, who are bottom of the competition in 20th place with 17 points and a goal difference of -24. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is only 45%. According to my model's calculations, Atlético-MG have a better chance of winning the match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this match has a good chance of producing over 1.5 goals. My pick for this match is Atlético-MG to win and over 1.5 goals in the match. [19/09] (17:00) - Mirassol vs Botafogo Mirassol are currently 15th in the league with 29 points. Over their last 5 Brasileirão matches, they have won only one game and recorded a performance rate of 52.5%. They host Botafogo, who are 14th in the competition and have not won in 5 matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is only 27.5%. According to my model's calculations, Mirassol have a better chance of winning the match, as you can see in the image below. However, I do not usually place much trust in teams with a performance rate below 60% over their last 5 matches. When it comes to goals, this match has a good chance of producing over 1.5 goals. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. [19/09] (18:30) - Remo vs Santos Remo are second from bottom in the competition, sitting 17th with only 23 points. They have lost their last 4 Brasileirão matches and recorded a performance rate of only 5% over their last 5 games. Remo host Santos, who are 10th with 35 points and are enjoying a very good run of form. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 92.5%. According to my model's calculations, Santos have a better chance of winning the match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this match has a reasonable chance of producing over 1.5 goals. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. [19/09] (20:30) - Vasco vs Coritiba Vasco are currently 17th in the league with only 28 points. They have recorded a performance rate of 50% over their last 5 matches and are in the relegation zone. Vasco host Coritiba, who are 8th with 38 points. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 55%. According to my model's calculations, Vasco have a better chance of winning the match, as you can see in the image below. However, I do not usually place much trust in teams with a performance rate below 60% over their last 5 matches. When it comes to goals, this is not a match that is expected to produce many. My pick for this match is under 3.5 goals. [19/09] (21:00) - São Paulo vs Internacional São Paulo are currently 11th in the league with 33 points. They have recorded a performance rate of 50% over their last 5 matches. São Paulo host Internacional, who are 18th with 28 points. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 42.5%. According to my model's calculations, São Paulo have a better chance of winning the match, as you can see in the image below. However, I do not usually place much trust in teams with a performance rate below 60% over their last 5 matches. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in the match is very likely. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [20/09] (11:00) - Grêmio vs Palmeiras Grêmio are currently 16th in the league with 28 points. They are coming off two consecutive Brasileirão defeats and have recorded a performance rate of only 20% over their last 5 matches. Grêmio host Palmeiras, who are second in the competition with 56 points and a goal difference of +26. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 67.5%. According to my model's calculations, Palmeiras have a better chance of winning the match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in the match is very likely. My pick for this match is Palmeiras to win or draw at the odds shown in the ticket below. [20/09] (16:00) - Corinthians vs Fluminense Corinthians are currently 13th in the league with 32 points. They are coming off five consecutive Brasileirão defeats and have recorded a performance rate of 0% over their last 5 matches. Corinthians host Fluminense, who are 5th in the competition with 45 points. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 60%. According to my model's calculations, this is an evenly balanced match with a tendency toward a draw, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in the match is very likely. The pick I like most for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [20/09] (16:00) - Vitória vs Cruzeiro Vitória are currently 12th in the league with 23 points. They have recorded a performance rate of 50% over their last 5 matches. Vitória host Cruzeiro, who are 6th in the competition with 42 points. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is also 50%. According to my model's calculations, Vitória are slight favourites to win the match, as you can see in the image below. However, I do not usually place much trust in teams with a performance rate below 60% over their last 5 matches. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in the match is very likely. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals. [20/09] (18:30) - Flamengo vs Bragantino Flamengo lead the competition, sitting 1st with 57 points and a goal difference of +31. They have recorded a performance rate of 90% over their last 5 matches. The Rubro-Negro host Bragantino, who are 9th in the competition with 36 points and have not won in 3 matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is only 35%. According to my model's calculations, Flamengo are strong favourites to win the match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in the match is very likely. My pick for this match is Flamengo to win and to score more than 1 goal. [20/09] (19:30) - Athletico-PR vs Bahia Athletico-PR are 3rd in the competition with 46 points and have not won in 3 matches. They have recorded a performance rate of only 45% over their last 5 matches. Athletico host Bahia, who are 4th in the competition with 46 points and are coming off 4 consecutive Brasileirão wins. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 95%. According to my model's calculations, this is an evenly balanced match with a tendency toward a draw, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in the match is very likely. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. Bet slip ready for this matchday Lucky Accumulator (Bingo) for this matchday

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BRASILEIRÃO - SÉRIE A (MATCHDAY 25)

Matchday 25 of the Brasileirão promises plenty of action, with games that could have a major impact on the standings. To help with the analysis, I bring you the probabilities for the main outcomes in each match - always keeping in mind that, no matter how good the model is, no prediction is 100% reliable. [29/08] (18:30) - Atlético-MG vs Vitória Atlético-MG are currently 9th in the league with 33 points and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have a 70% performance rate. Galo host Vitória, who are 12th in the competition with 29 points and have not won away from home (or even scored) since June 2. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is only 25%. According to my model's calculations, Atlético-MG have a better chance of winning the match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is not a match that is expected to produce many. My pick for this match is Atlético-MG to win at the odds shown in the ticket below. [29/08] (20:00) - São Paulo vs Bragantino São Paulo are currently 13th in the league with 27 points and have gone 5 matches without a win, alternating between a draw and a defeat in their recent games. Over their last 5 Brasileirão matches, they have recorded a performance rate of only 20%. They host Bragantino, who are 7th in the competition with 35 points and have lost only 1 of their last 5 away matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 55%. According to my model's calculations, this match looks set to be very evenly balanced, with a slight tendency toward a draw, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in this match is a possibility. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [29/08] (21:20) - Vasco vs Cruzeiro Vasco are currently 19th in the league with only 22 points, sitting second from bottom, and have not won in 5 matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 17.5%. They host Cruzeiro, who are 5th in the competition with 39 points and are on a run of 4 consecutive league wins. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 90%. According to my model's calculations, Cruzeiro have a better chance of winning this match, although away teams tend to fluctuate more in relation to the statistical model, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in the match is very likely. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (11:00) - Athletico-PR vs Fluminense Athletico-PR are currently 3rd in the league with 44 points and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of 80%. They host Fluminense, who are 4th in the competition with 41 points and are also unbeaten in 5 matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 77.5%. According to my model's calculations, Athletico-PR have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in this match is very likely. My pick for this match is Athletico-PR to win or draw at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (16:00) - Flamengo vs Botafogo Flamengo are currently 2nd in the league with 45 points, behind only league leaders Palmeiras. The Rubro-Negro are coming off a defeat to Cruzeiro in an away match. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of 57.5%. They host Botafogo, who are 11th in the competition with 30 points. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is only 30%. According to my model's calculations, Flamengo have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is a good match for over 1.5 goals. My pick for this match is Flamengo to win at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (16:00) - Corinthians vs Santos Corinthians are currently 10th in the league with 32 points and have lost their last 2 Brasileirão matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 32.5%. They host Santos, who are 14th in the competition with 26 points and have won only 1 of their last 5 matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 47.5%. According to my model's calculations, this match looks set to be very evenly balanced, with a slight tendency toward a draw, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is a good match for over 1.5 goals. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (16:00) - Mirassol vs Palmeiras Mirassol are currently 17th in the league with only 24 points and have not won in 3 Brasileirão matches. Over their last 5 league games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 35%. They host Palmeiras, who are 1st in the competition with 51 points and lead the Brasileirão. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 55%. According to my model's calculations, Palmeiras have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is not a match that is expected to produce many. My pick for this match is Palmeiras draw no bet at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (18:30) - Grêmio vs Chapecoense Grêmio are currently 15th in the league with only 25 points. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 27.5%. They host Chapecoense, who are bottom of the competition in 20th place with only 14 points and a goal difference of -22. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 50%. According to my model's calculations, Grêmio do have a better chance of winning, as you can see in the image below, but I do not trust a team with such a low performance rate over its last 5 matches. When it comes to goals, this is a good match for goals. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (19:30) - Bahia vs Internacional Bahia are currently 6th in the league with 37 points and ended their run of draws in their last match against Vitória, winning 2-0 away at Barradão. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of 65%. They host Internacional, who are 16th in the competition with 25 points and are coming off 4 consecutive draws. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 45%. According to my model's calculations, Bahia have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is a good match for goals. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [31/08] (20:00) - Remo vs Coritiba Remo are currently 18th in the league with only 23 points and have not won in 4 matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 32.5%. They host Coritiba, who are 8th in the competition with 34 points and are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 67.5%. According to my model's calculations, this match looks set to be very evenly balanced, with a slight tendency toward a draw, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is not a match that is expected to produce many. My pick for this match is under 3.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. Bet slip ready for this matchday Lucky Accumulator (Bingo) for this matchday

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