Carlos Marques

BRASILEIRÃO - SÉRIE A (MATCHDAY 25)

Matchday 25 of the Brasileirão promises plenty of action, with games that could have a major impact on the standings. To help with the analysis, I bring you the probabilities for the main outcomes in each match - always keeping in mind that, no matter how good the model is, no prediction is 100% reliable. [29/08] (18:30) - Atlético-MG vs Vitória Atlético-MG are currently 9th in the league with 33 points and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have a 70% performance rate. Galo host Vitória, who are 12th in the competition with 29 points and have not won away from home (or even scored) since June 2. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is only 25%. According to my model's calculations, Atlético-MG have a better chance of winning the match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is not a match that is expected to produce many. My pick for this match is Atlético-MG to win at the odds shown in the ticket below. [29/08] (20:00) - São Paulo vs Bragantino São Paulo are currently 13th in the league with 27 points and have gone 5 matches without a win, alternating between a draw and a defeat in their recent games. Over their last 5 Brasileirão matches, they have recorded a performance rate of only 20%. They host Bragantino, who are 7th in the competition with 35 points and have lost only 1 of their last 5 away matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 55%. According to my model's calculations, this match looks set to be very evenly balanced, with a slight tendency toward a draw, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in this match is a possibility. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [29/08] (21:20) - Vasco vs Cruzeiro Vasco are currently 19th in the league with only 22 points, sitting second from bottom, and have not won in 5 matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 17.5%. They host Cruzeiro, who are 5th in the competition with 39 points and are on a run of 4 consecutive league wins. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 90%. According to my model's calculations, Cruzeiro have a better chance of winning this match, although away teams tend to fluctuate more in relation to the statistical model, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in the match is very likely. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (11:00) - Athletico-PR vs Fluminense Athletico-PR are currently 3rd in the league with 44 points and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of 80%. They host Fluminense, who are 4th in the competition with 41 points and are also unbeaten in 5 matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 77.5%. According to my model's calculations, Athletico-PR have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals in this match is very likely. My pick for this match is Athletico-PR to win or draw at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (16:00) - Flamengo vs Botafogo Flamengo are currently 2nd in the league with 45 points, behind only league leaders Palmeiras. The Rubro-Negro are coming off a defeat to Cruzeiro in an away match. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of 57.5%. They host Botafogo, who are 11th in the competition with 30 points. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is only 30%. According to my model's calculations, Flamengo have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is a good match for over 1.5 goals. My pick for this match is Flamengo to win at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (16:00) - Corinthians vs Santos Corinthians are currently 10th in the league with 32 points and have lost their last 2 Brasileirão matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 32.5%. They host Santos, who are 14th in the competition with 26 points and have won only 1 of their last 5 matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 47.5%. According to my model's calculations, this match looks set to be very evenly balanced, with a slight tendency toward a draw, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is a good match for over 1.5 goals. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (16:00) - Mirassol vs Palmeiras Mirassol are currently 17th in the league with only 24 points and have not won in 3 Brasileirão matches. Over their last 5 league games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 35%. They host Palmeiras, who are 1st in the competition with 51 points and lead the Brasileirão. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 55%. According to my model's calculations, Palmeiras have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is not a match that is expected to produce many. My pick for this match is Palmeiras draw no bet at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (18:30) - Grêmio vs Chapecoense Grêmio are currently 15th in the league with only 25 points. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 27.5%. They host Chapecoense, who are bottom of the competition in 20th place with only 14 points and a goal difference of -22. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 50%. According to my model's calculations, Grêmio do have a better chance of winning, as you can see in the image below, but I do not trust a team with such a low performance rate over its last 5 matches. When it comes to goals, this is a good match for goals. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [30/08] (19:30) - Bahia vs Internacional Bahia are currently 6th in the league with 37 points and ended their run of draws in their last match against Vitória, winning 2-0 away at Barradão. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of 65%. They host Internacional, who are 16th in the competition with 25 points and are coming off 4 consecutive draws. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 45%. According to my model's calculations, Bahia have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is a good match for goals. My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. [31/08] (20:00) - Remo vs Coritiba Remo are currently 18th in the league with only 23 points and have not won in 4 matches. Over their last 5 Brasileirão games, they have recorded a performance rate of only 32.5%. They host Coritiba, who are 8th in the competition with 34 points and are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Their performance rate over the last 5 matches is 67.5%. According to my model's calculations, this match looks set to be very evenly balanced, with a slight tendency toward a draw, as you can see in the image below. When it comes to goals, this is not a match that is expected to produce many. My pick for this match is under 3.5 goals at the odds shown in the ticket below. Bet slip ready for this matchday Lucky Accumulator (Bingo) for this matchday