Premier League picks and probabilities for Matchweek 7
Matchweek 7 of the Premier League promises some exciting clashes in one of the most competitive football leagues in the world. With teams fighting for the title, chasing European qualification spots or trying to move away from the relegation zone, every match could make a difference in the standings.
To help you analyse the upcoming games, I've put together the probabilities for the main outcomes of each match, based on team stats and recent form. Just remember that while the numbers can help us spot good opportunities, no prediction is 100% reliable. Let's take a look at the matches and see what the best opportunities are!
Matchweek picks
| Match | Pick |
|---|---|
| Everton x Chelsea | Everton to win or draw |
| Brentford x Liverpool | Over 1.5 goals |
| Fulham x Hull | Over 1.5 goals |
| Manchester City x Ipswich | Manchester City to win |
| Newcastle x Aston Villa | Over 1.5 goals |
| Bournemouth x Sunderland | Over 1.5 goals |
| Brighton x Crystal Palace | Brighton to win |
| Leeds x Manchester Utd | Over 1.5 goals |
| Nottingham x Arsenal | Arsenal to win |
| Tottenham x Coventry | Over 1.5 goals |
Everton x Chelsea
17 October | 11:30 GMT
Everton are currently 5th in the Premier League with 10 points and are still unbeaten this season. They have a 62.5% performance rating over their last five matches. They host Chelsea, who sit in 6th place, also with 10 points. Chelsea's performance rating over their last five games is 50%.
According to my model, Everton have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
As for goals, we could see plenty of them in this game.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is Everton to win or draw.
Brentford x Liverpool
17 October | 14:00 GMT
Brentford are currently 4th in the Premier League with 10 points and remain unbeaten in the competition. They have a 62.5% performance rating over their last five matches. They host Liverpool, who sit in 9th place with 9 points and have a 55% performance rating over their last five games.
According to my model, Brentford have a better chance of winning this match, as shown in the image below.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
When it comes to goals, there's a good chance we'll see plenty in this game.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals.
Fulham x Hull
17 October | 14:00 GMT
Fulham are bottom of the Premier League table, sitting in 20th place with just 2 points and a goal difference of -4. They are yet to win a league match this season and have a performance rating of just 22.5% over their last five games. Fulham host Hull City, who are 8th with 9 points but haven't won in their last four matches. Their performance rating over the last five games is 42.5%.
According to my model, Hull have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below. However, I don't really trust teams with a performance rating below 60% over their last five matches.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
As for goals, there's a good chance we'll see over 1.5 goals in this game.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals.
Manchester City x Ipswich
17 October | 14:00 GMT
Manchester City are top of the Premier League table with 18 points and a goal difference of +11. They have a perfect 100% performance rating over their last five matches. City host Ipswich Town, who sit in 10th place with 9 points and have a 50% performance rating over their last five games.
According to my model, Manchester City have a better chance of winning this match, as shown in the image below.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
When it comes to goals, this looks like a game where we could see plenty of them.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is Manchester City to win.
Newcastle x Aston Villa
17 October | 16:30 GMT
Newcastle are currently 11th in the Premier League with 8 points. They have a performance rating of just 42.5% over their last five matches. They host Aston Villa, who sit in 16th place with only 5 points. Villa's performance rating over the last five games is 47.5%.
According to my model, this should be a close match, with a draw looking like the most likely result, as you can see in the image below.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
As for goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals.
Bournemouth x Sunderland
18 October | 13:00 GMT
Bournemouth are currently 18th in the Premier League with just 3 points. They are still looking for their first league win of the season and have a performance rating of only 22.5% over their last five matches. They host Sunderland, who sit in 17th place with just 4 points. Sunderland's performance rating over the last five games is even lower, at 17.5%.
According to my model, this should be a balanced match, with a draw looking like the most likely outcome, as shown in the image below.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
When it comes to goals, there's a good chance we'll see over 1.5 goals.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals.
Brighton x Crystal Palace
18 October | 13:00 GMT
Brighton are currently 3rd in the Premier League with 13 points and have the best attack in the competition, with 18 goals scored. They have won their last three league matches and have an 82.5% performance rating over their last five games. Brighton host Crystal Palace, who sit in 12th place with 7 points. Palace have a 57.5% performance rating over their last five matches.
According to my model, Brighton have a better chance of winning this match, as you can see in the image below.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
As for goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My favourite pick for this match is Brighton to win.
Leeds x Manchester Utd
18 October | 13:00 GMT
Leeds are currently 7th in the Premier League with 9 points. They have a performance rating of just 45% over their last five matches. They host Manchester United, who sit in 13th place with 6 points. United also have a 45% performance rating over their last five games.
According to my model, Leeds are slight favourites to win this match, as shown in the image below. However, I'm not too confident backing a team that hasn't been performing particularly well recently.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals.
Nottingham x Arsenal
18 October | 15:30 GMT
Nottingham Forest are currently 15th in the Premier League with just 5 points and a goal difference of -3. They have a performance rating of only 32.5% over their last five matches. Forest host Arsenal, who sit in 2nd place with 15 points, just three behind league leaders Manchester City. Arsenal have a 75% performance rating over their last five games.
According to my model, Arsenal are favourites to win this match, as you can see in the image below.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
As for goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is Arsenal to win.
Tottenham x Coventry
19 October
Tottenham are second from bottom in the Premier League, sitting in 19th place with just 3 points. They are still looking for their first league win of the season and have a performance rating of only 32.5% over their last five matches. They host Coventry City, who sit in 14th place with 6 points and are coming off two consecutive Premier League wins. Coventry have a 55% performance rating over their last five games.
According to my model, this should be a close match, with a draw looking like the most likely result, as you can see in the image below.
Match result probabilities and recent performance rating
When it comes to goals, over 1.5 goals looks very likely.
Team goal probabilities and total match goals
My pick for this match is over 1.5 goals.
Bet slip ready for this matchweek
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