Our model gives the Home outcome a 49.9% probability, making Belgium the most likely winners. Belgium’s squad has more depth and attacking quality, and the odds around 1.37 reflect that status. Iran are organised and dangerous on the break, but over ninety minutes Belgium usually create more clear chances at this level. With both teams on neutral ground at SoFi Stadium, the gap in individual quality and big‑tournament experience still favours Belgium, so a home win on the 1X2 market is the logical call.

Our model gives Yes in the BTTS market a 55.8% probability, slightly higher than No. Bookmaker odds near 2.10 for Yes suggest the market leans the other way, but Belgium’s open attacking style often leaves space behind, while Iran’s counter‑attacks and set‑pieces can punish any lapse. Belgium are very likely to find the net, and Iran have enough pace and physical presence to create at least one clear chance. Combining the model edge on BTTS Yes with the expected match tempo, both teams scoring looks a realistic scenario.

Our model gives Over 2.5 a 54.1% probability, making it the preferred side of the goal line. The odds around 1.86 on Over 2.5 show bookmakers also expect a fairly open game. Belgium’s attacking unit usually produces several good chances per match, and if Iran push forward at times or catch them on counters, the game can open up quickly. Linking this with our BTTS Yes angle, a 2–1 or 3–1 type scoreline fits both the model probabilities and the teams’ profiles, so Over 2.5 goals is a coherent and likely outcome. Conclusion: we expect a Belgian win in a lively match where both sides get on the scoresheet and the goal tally goes over 2.5.