Winning Bets - 7 Easy Steps
The title says it all and it surely caught your attention. The reality is that whatever you do you can not have just winning bets because if there had been a magic formula for that, then all the punters would have known, and the bookmakers would have long gone bankrupt. But that is clearly not the case. Even so, there are some things you can do to increase your chances of winning considerably and to get more winning bets in the long run.
Here are our 7 easy steps to get winning bets
If you will apply all these simple steps then you will make some profits on sports betting. We presented some basic issues but in fact, the analysis of a bet needs to bring results in the long-term.
1. Choose the sport to bet on
You do not have to bet on sports you don’t know, not even when the offer for the favourite sport is poor and you have almost nothing to bet on. It is better not to bet on such a day. They say no punter knows perfectly at least two sports at the same time, because each has its own features and characteristics.
2. Choose the championship
You must know the championship you are betting on. You need to have access to statistics such as the list of injured or unavailable players, but also news of the teams to get an approximate idea of what's going on there. There are also championships that are more unpredictable than others and championships with special features. For example, in the Premier League, it is possible to have more goals, more draws, or better results at home or away than in Spain La Liga.
3. Analyse the matches
If you want to bet on the winner of a match you should take into account the following basic criteria:
Ranking and shape of both teams. Both are important, although they may be irrelevant in some situations. For example, the home team can rank fifth and the away team can rank tenth, but the hosts come after three defeats in a row and the guests after three wins. In such a situation the shape is more important than the ranking.
The way both teams play at home/away. Check the rankings to see how many matches the hosts have won on the home ground and how many matches the guests have won away and where they would rank in the two situations. There are teams that play very well on their own ground but make a bad figure away and teams that have far more balanced results. You will see teams that have not won a match away for a long time but they are almost invincible when playing at home. These are issues that you need to keep in mind. Many believe that a team starts with a first chance in a match only because it is theoretically better. In practice, things are not always that way.
The list of unavailable players. You have to figure out what happens if a player is absent, who is the replacement for his position, and how effective that change might be.
The stake of the match, the rivalry between teams, and the special conditions in which a game might take place can tilt the balance in favour of a team if you have logical arguments for that. For example, if you want to bet on the total number of goals in a match, you need to keep in mind how much both teams score and what style of play they both practice. Are both teams going to attack? Will one defend the whole match, while the other will attack? Depending on each bet type you want to place, you will consider those issues that may be relevant to that bet. This will take you a step closer to that winning bet!
4. Avoid matches where there is a good chance of surprise
It is important to know to avoid matches where there is a higher chance that a surprise will happen. A match should be avoided when:
- there is no stake or matches where the better team could play in an improvised formula (for example, national cup matches).
- there is a rivalry between teams, even if on paper one starts with a better chance or even if the better team has a stake and the weaker team does not. In such matches, no matter the importance of the match, the players will be concentrated to the maximum.
- playing in special conditions (snow, heavy rain, strong fog, frost, or frozen ground) In such matches, the difference in value is canceled, and thus the chances of a surprising result increase.
- you root for a certain team. You must keep a cool head when placing a bet, so it is good to avoid the matches in which you hope for a certain outcome.
- a team that has the “habit” of getting “surprising” results. You should look at the recent results of each team, see how often it happened that one would win when it was the underdog and how often it lost when it was a favourite. Some teams are more constant than others and you should take this into account.
5. Only bet where odds are good enough
You should avoid predictions where the odds are too low in relation to the likelihood of them winning. Under no circumstances should you take into account the betting odds when choosing a prediction, but you must take them into account when deciding whether it is worth betting on that soccer prediction. From our point of view, the probability of a prediction to be a winning one should be higher than the probability considered by the bookmakers. Suppose a bookmaker gives, in case a draw occurs, 1.85 / 1.85 odds for a soccer match with a stake refund. As a result of your analysis, you consider the home team to be the favourite and it is worthwhile to bet on it. Or you see that odds are 1.30 / 3.00 at a match, but after the analysis, you decide that both teams have equal chances to win this game. Then it's worth betting at odds of 3.00. Such bets are called value bets.
6. More by luck than judgment
You only have to bet on those predictions for which you have logical arguments. The most common types of such bets are the match winner or the total number of goals. In case of more unbalanced matches, you could also try the Asian handicap. You can even bet on corners or cards, but you need to be well documented before placing such a bet. Will it be a tight match or with a big stack? Is the referee known to show a red card easily? Does the team play tough? If you have clear answers to these questions, it is worthwhile to bet on the cards. You can also bet on the winner of the first half or on the half in which more goals are scored if you expect a team to score in the first half, or on the contrary, to play prudently and to score in the second half. Avoid predictions such as "the first fault after the 10th minute”, "who kicks the ball from the middle of the ground” and "will the number of corners be odd?" You could just as well play the lottery.
7. Place realistic bets with real chances of winning
It's best to place single bets, but suppose you do not want to do that. Then you could at least place realistic bets, not the fabulous ones you get once a year. Okay, so what do you have to do? We recommend not to bet when odds are much higher than 5.00 (do not exceed 10.00) provided that you comply with all the above rules. Depending on the matches and odds you select, you could consider the option of placing system bets, that is, those bets from which you can get less money even if not all the predictions are winning predictions. You could also opt for bets that cover you if a prediction is not exactly what you expected. For example, you can opt for stake-back Asian Handicap or Draw No Bet and this could be one of those winning bets!