Our model makes Morocco clear favourites in this Round of 16 clash, giving the Away win a 43.3% probability compared to 28.0% for Canada and 28.7% for the draw. Morocco reached the knockouts after edging the Netherlands on penalties and showed strong defensive control in that tie, limiting clear chances over 120 minutes. Canada also arrive in good spirits after a gritty 1-0 win over South Africa, but they needed a late goal and spent long spells defending their own box. On paper, Morocco have the deeper squad and more big‑tournament experience, having gone on a historic World Cup run in 2022 and now backing it up again with another last‑16 appearance. That edge is reflected in the market, with Morocco priced at 1.8000 for the full‑time result, while Canada sit at 4.7500 and the draw at 3.5000, indicating the bookmakers also see the North Africans as the stronger side. Playing at a neutral venue in Houston should reduce home‑field emotion for Canada and allow Morocco’s technical quality and ball retention to shine. Our model probability of 43.3% for the Away outcome, combined with Morocco’s recent knockout pedigree, more reliable back line, and the stronger odds support, makes Morocco to win in 90 minutes the logical call.

The model leans towards a cagey knockout game, giving BTTS No a 56.3% probability versus 43.7% for Yes. That fits both teams’ recent paths: Morocco advanced by keeping things extremely tight against the Netherlands before winning on penalties, while Canada reached this stage through a narrow 1-0 victory over South Africa. In high‑stakes World Cup knockout ties, coaches often prioritise structure over risk, especially when one side, like Morocco, is favoured and confident in its defensive shape. The odds mirror this defensive expectation, with BTTS No at 1.7000 and BTTS Yes at 2.0500, showing the market also expects at least one team to blank. If Morocco control the game, it is easy to imagine them limiting Canada’s chances, while Canada themselves are unlikely to open up recklessly against a better‑ranked opponent. With the model’s 56.3% edge and the price support on No, plus both sides’ recent low‑scoring wins, backing that not both teams score aligns strongly with how this matchup profiles.

Our model strongly favours a low‑scoring contest, giving Under 2.5 goals a 62.2% probability against only 37.8% for Over 2.5. That projection matches the way both teams reached Houston: Canada relied on a 1-0 win over South Africa, and Morocco advanced after a tense, chance‑limited draw with the Netherlands that went all the way to penalties. Knockout football, especially at a World Cup, often produces risk‑averse tactical plans, and Morocco’s strength lies in a compact defence and measured build‑up rather than chaotic end‑to‑end play. The main goal line market also leans slightly toward fewer goals, with the Under on the 2.00/2.50 line trading at 1.8500 versus 2.0000 for the Over, reinforcing the expectation of a tight affair. Combining the model’s 62.2% probability, the odds edge on the Under, Morocco’s organised back line, and Canada’s more limited attacking ceiling, a 1-0 or 2-0 Moroccan win looks more likely than a shootout, making Under 2.5 the most sensible total‑goals pick.