Our model makes the Home outcome the top pick at 41.9%, ahead of the draw at 27.6% and Ecuador at 30.6%. That small but clear edge suggests Côte d’Ivoire have enough quality to nick this on neutral ground. The market offers Côte d’Ivoire at 3.64, implying roughly 27–28%, so our model rate them higher than the odds suggest. With Ecuador priced shorter around 2.37–2.42, many bettors will see them as favourites, but the numbers point to value on the Ivorians. In a likely tight, low‑scoring game, one moment of pace or individual brilliance from Côte d’Ivoire’s front line could be decisive, which fits with backing the Home win.

The model has BTTS – No as the top outcome at 52.2%, slightly ahead of Yes at 47.8%. That aligns with the bookmakers, who price BTTS – No at 1.61, suggesting they also expect at least one side to blank. Given the neutral venue and World Cup pressure, both teams are likely to start cautious, keeping their lines compact and avoiding big risks early on. With the same model also favouring Under 2.5 goals, a scenario like 1–0 or 2–0 feels more realistic than a wide‑open shootout, making BTTS – No a logical choice.

Our model gives Under 2.5 goals a solid 57.6% probability, clearly above the 42.3% for Over 2.5, making Under the top outcome. The odds around 1.41 for Under 2.5 show bookmakers also expect a tight contest with limited scoring. Combined with the model’s lean to BTTS – No (52.2%), everything points toward a controlled, tactical game where defences and midfield battles dominate. With Côte d’Ivoire only slight favourites and Ecuador likely to respect their attacking threat, a cautious approach from both sides supports a scoreline like 1–0 or 2–0 rather than a high‑scoring thriller. This keeps all three predictions consistent: a narrow Côte d’Ivoire win, no BTTS, and Under 2.5 goals.

Conclusion: We expect a tense World Cup duel, with Côte d’Ivoire edging a low‑scoring game where one big moment decides it.