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At a glance
The statistical model gives Famalicão a 50% probability to beat Alverca, with the draw at 27% and a Alverca win at 23%.
The model estimates a 55% probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in Famalicão vs Alverca.
The model puts the probability that both Famalicão and Alverca score at 49%.
Famalicão vs Alverca kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:15.
Famalicão vs Alverca Prediction: Liga Portugal Preview
Welcome to Extratips for the Monday night clash at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Famalicão host Alverca on 12 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:15. The table sets up a close contest: Alverca are 10th with 8 points, while Famalicão sit 13th on 7 points after seven games. That small gap adds extra weight to every duel.
The market makes Famalicão clear favourites at 1.8000. The draw is priced at 3.3100, while Alverca are available at 3.7500. These odds point to a narrow home edge. Our model agrees, giving the hosts a 50.1% chance of victory.
Recent meetings have been tight. Famalicão won 1-0 in May 2026, after Alverca won 1-0 in January. The latest form also suggests caution: Famalicão drew 0-0 with Gil Vicente, while Alverca have shown mixed results across their opening matches. Famalicão's defensive record is stronger, with seven goals conceded compared with Alverca's eleven.
The key storyline is simple: can Alverca's counterattack unsettle a home side seeking points and momentum? A patient first half looks likely. If Famalicão control midfield and avoid cheap turnovers, their home advantage may decide it. The likeliest script is a low-scoring 1-0 win, though a 0-0 draw remains a live danger. The best-supported selections are Home, Both Teams To Score—No, and Under 2.5 goals.
Famalicão vs Alverca Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Famalicão a 50% win probability, Alverca 23%, and the draw 27%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 51%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Under 2.5 at 55%, indicating a lower-scoring affair is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 59
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Famalicão vs Alverca: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x21.8000
Famalicão to win.
The model gives Home a 50.1% probability, while the best listed home price is 1.8000. Famalicão sit 13th with 7 points, only one place and one point behind Alverca in 10th with 8 points, but home advantage and the stronger market price support the hosts. Recent head-to-head results are split, with Famalicão winning 1-0 in May 2026 and Alverca winning 1-0 in January. A narrow home victory fits the cautious profile.
Both Teams To Score1.9500
Both teams to score: No.
The model gives No a 51.1% probability, with odds of 1.9500 available. The goal outlook is tight: Famalicão have scored 9 and conceded 7 in seven league matches, while Alverca have scored 9 and conceded 11. Their two latest recorded meetings both ended 1-0, and the expected home win points toward a controlled match rather than an open exchange.
Over/Under1.8000
Under 2.5 goals.
The model gives Under 2.5 a 54.7% probability, compared with odds of 1.8000. Famalicão's recent results include 0-0 against Gil Vicente and 1-0 against Santa Clara, while the latest head-to-head meetings finished 1-0. With both teams near the lower half of the table and the model favouring a home win without both sides scoring, two goals or fewer is the consistent angle.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
6.32
Potential Winnings
$265.90
Famalicão to win.
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: No.
Both Teams To Score / No
Under 2.5 goals.
Over/Under / Under 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
50%
Home
Fair odd 1.99
27%
Draw
Fair odd 3.70
23%
Away
Fair odd 4.38
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 71%
Under 29%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 45%
Under 55%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 24%
Under 76%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 49%
No 51%
First Half Winner
37%
Home
45%
Draw
19%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
29%
5%
1%
Draw
18%
19%
8%
Away
2%
5%
11%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
8.6
7.6
3.5
1.2
1
12.7
13.0
5.7
1.9
2
9.4
9.5
4.6
1.5
3
5.0
4.6
2.2
0.8
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
Famalicão vs Alverca
Famalicão1
Alverca0
16 May 26FT!
Famalicão1Alverca0Alverca vs FamalicãoAlverca1Famalicão0
04 Jan 26FT!
Alverca1Famalicão0Alverca vs FamalicãoAlverca1Famalicão2
20 Nov 21FT!
Alverca1Famalicão2| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 18:3 | 21 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 22:7 | 16 | LWWWW | |
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 17:8 | 15 | DDWWW | |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 11:4 | 15 | DWWDW | |
| 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 10:7 | 11 | DLDWL | |
| 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 7:5 | 11 | DWLWW | |
| 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:9 | 11 | WWWLD | |
| 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:14 | 10 | LDWDW | |
| 9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 8 | DLLDW | |
| 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9:11 | 8 | WWLDL | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8:12 | 8 | DLLLD | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8:14 | 8 | DWLLW | |
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 9:7 | 7 | WDDDL | |
| 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5:8 | 5 | DLDLW | |
| 15 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7:15 | 4 | LLLLL | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 5:15 | 4 | LDLLW | |
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 3:16 | 4 | WLDLL | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 3:10 | 2 | LLDLL |
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