Our model gives the Home win a strong 69.8% probability, making France clear favourites. The market backs this up, with France priced as low as 1.11 for the full‑time result, while Iraq are out at 17.50 or higher and the draw sits around 8.25–9.20. That pricing shows how big the gap in quality and depth is expected to be. France usually dominate group games against lower‑ranked sides, controlling the ball and creating far more chances. Iraq tend to struggle against top‑tier European opponents, especially away from home or at neutral venues. With superior talent, tournament experience, and more goal threats across the pitch, a France win is the most logical outcome over ninety minutes.

Our model gives BTTS No a 60.4% probability, so it is more likely than both teams scoring. The odds also point that way, with BTTS No around 1.36 and BTTS Yes out at 3.00. France are strong defensively and often limit weaker opponents to very few clear chances, especially in group matches where they control the tempo. Iraq are likely to sit deep and focus on defending, which can further reduce their attacking output, particularly against a high‑press, high‑quality back line. At the same time, France do not need to play wild, open football here; a controlled win to nil fits both their style and their status as favourites. All this supports a scenario where France score and keep a clean sheet.

Our model gives Under 2.5 goals a 51.6% probability, slightly higher than the 48.4% for Over 2.5. The market leans to a moderate‑scoring game as well, with lines clustered around 3 and 3.5 goals and the lower‑goal sides often favoured. This fits a likely pattern of France controlling the match without needing to run up a huge score, especially in an early World Cup game where risk is kept low. Iraq are expected to defend deep, slow the tempo, and accept long spells without the ball, which naturally keeps total shots and goal events down. Combined with our BTTS No angle, a controlled France win by one or two goals, such as 2–0, looks more probable than a wild, high‑scoring contest. Conclusion: a solid France win, clean sheet likely, and a relatively tight scoreline under 3 goals.