Our model gives Panama (Away) a 44.8% chance to win, compared with 29.4% for Ghana and 25.9% for the draw, so the away side is the most likely outcome according to the numbers. The available odds for Panama are around 3.4800, which implies roughly 28–29%, showing that the market still leans more towards Ghana, so there is some upside on the away win. Ghana usually rely on open, attacking phases and can leave space between their lines, something that suits Panama’s organised, counter-attacking style at a neutral venue like BMO Field. With neither side having true home advantage and both desperate for group points, Panama’s compact shape, superior discipline, and set‑piece threat give them a realistic path to edge a tight game, perhaps by a single goal, in line with the model’s preference for the Away outcome.

The model assigns Both Teams To Score – Yes a 52.2% probability, slightly higher than the 47.8% for No, making BTTS: Yes the preferred side. The market price for BTTS: Yes sits around 1.9500, which implies just over 51%, very close to our projection and reinforcing the idea of a marginal edge. Ghana usually play on the front foot and have enough pace and creativity to score against a packed defence, but they also tend to leave gaps and concede chances under pressure. Panama, for their part, are strong on set pieces and transitions and should create at least a few clear looks over 90 minutes, especially on neutral ground where Ghana lack home backing. Taken together with the Away-win lean, a 2–1 type scoreline for Panama fits both the BTTS: Yes angle and the model’s expectation of goals at both ends.

Our model gives Under 2.5 goals a 51.8% chance, slightly higher than the 48.2% for Over 2.5, so the value lies on the Under side even if the edge is not huge. The bookmakers’ odds near 1.6000 for Under 2.5 imply well over 60%, which shows the market expects a low‑scoring contest even more strongly than the model does. That still marries well with a likely tight World Cup group game, where both teams are cautious about losing and focus on shape first. Ghana can attack but often struggle to break down organised blocks, while Panama usually keep matches cagey, slow the tempo, and play for set‑piece moments rather than end‑to‑end exchanges. Combining the Under 2.5 call with BTTS: Yes and an Away win points towards a narrow result like 2–1 to Panama or, slightly less likely but still possible, 1–1 late before a decisive goal, all within a three‑goal ceiling.

In conclusion, our model points to a tight World Cup battle: Panama to edge it, both sides to find the net, and the total goals to stay under 2.5 in a tense, tactical encounter at BMO Field.