The model gives Home a 37.2% probability, just ahead of Away at 37.0% and Draw at 25.8%. Górnik have the slight edge on the numbers, and the home crowd at Arena Zabrze can matter in a tight European tie. The bookmaker line also leans home, with Home priced at 2.4800, so the market and model point the same way.

The model gives Yes a 55.4% probability, which makes BTTS the stronger lean. In a match where the 1X2 market is close, both sides have a fair path to scoring if the game opens up. That fits a balanced tie with little margin between the teams.

The model gives Over 2.5 a 53.1% probability, so the slight edge is on goals rather than a tight low-scoring game. With the 1X2 market nearly level and BTTS also favored, this points to a match that can stretch after the first goal. The best fit is a game with chances at both ends.