The model gives the Home outcome a 36.4% probability, the highest 1X2 figure in this fixture. Le Mans have recently beaten Lorient and drawn with Lens and Nice, while Toulouse have lost three of their last four competitive matches. The market lists Le Mans at 3.0000, compared with 2.2500 for Toulouse, so this remains a narrow home lean rather than a strong position. Historical meetings favor Toulouse, but the latest form is more balanced.

The model gives Both Teams To Score: No a 51.6% probability. Although recent results have included several open games, Toulouse have failed to score in losses to Lille and Lyon, while the model expects a controlled match with limited clear chances. The available BTTS No price is 2.2000, against 1.6100 for Yes. That market split suggests scoring from both sides is possible, but the model slightly favors at least one team being shut out.

The model gives Under 2.5 a 58.6% probability, making it the clearest of the three selected outcomes. The recent head-to-head record contains tight results, while Toulouse's recent away games include 2-2 draws and Le Mans have often relied on narrow margins. The quoted Under 2.5 price is 2.1000, compared with 1.7200 for Over 2.5 in the listed market. A 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline fits the low-scoring model view and also supports the BTTS No selection.