At a glance
The statistical model gives Bologna a 39% probability to win away against Lecce, with the draw at 29% and a Lecce win at 32%.
The model estimates a 56% probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in Lecce vs Bologna.
The model puts the probability that both Lecce and Bologna score at 49%.
Lecce vs Bologna kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00.
Lecce vs Bologna Prediction: Serie A Preview and Betting Tips
Welcome to Extratips for our preview of Lecce against Bologna, taking place on October 11, 2026, at 13:00 at the Via del Mare. The model makes Bologna slight favourites, but this looks set to be a tight contest.
Lecce sit 12th with six points after five games, while Bologna are 18th with two points. That gap adds pressure to the visitors, who need a result to climb away from danger. Lecce have won two of their last five, including a 3-2 home victory over Monza. Bologna remain without a win, with two draws and three defeats.
Recent head-to-head meetings favour Bologna. The last five listed results are: Bologna 2-0 Lecce, Lecce 2-2 Bologna, Lecce 0-0 Bologna, Bologna 1-0 Lecce, and Lecce 1-1 Bologna. The pattern is clear: Bologna rarely lose this matchup, while goals have often been limited.
Lecce’s home form is mixed, with one win and one defeat from two league games. Bologna’s away record is not fully detailed, but their wider form shows defensive discipline alongside weak attacking output. Tiago Gabriel, Medon Berisha, and Willem Geubbels are unavailable for Lecce; Emil Holm and Jens Odgaard miss out for Bologna.
The main story is Bologna’s fight against relegation pressure. Lecce have more confidence, yet Bologna’s historical control of this fixture could matter. The likeliest scenarios are a narrow Bologna win, a low-scoring draw, or a tight Lecce victory. Our main angles are Bologna on the result, both teams not scoring, and under 2.5 goals.
Lecce vs Bologna Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Lecce a 32% win probability, Bologna 39%, and the draw 29%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 51%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Under 2.5 at 56%, indicating a lower-scoring affair is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
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Lecce vs Bologna: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Bologna to win
The model gives Bologna a 39.0% probability of winning, the highest outcome in this market. Bologna are priced at 1.9500, while Lecce are listed at 4.1000. Lecce have shown mixed recent form, whereas Bologna's stronger head-to-head record supports an away edge. However, Bologna's poor league position makes this a cautious selection.
Both teams not to score
The model gives No a 50.7% probability, narrowly ahead of Yes at 49.3%. The 1.9500 price also points to a closely balanced market. Recent meetings include Bologna's 2-0 win and a 0-0 draw, while Bologna have scored only three goals in five league matches. Those trends support a match where at least one attack may be shut out.
Under 2.5 goals
The model gives Under 2.5 a 56.1% probability. The best listed price is 1.8200, and recent evidence points toward a controlled game: Bologna have scored three goals in five league matches, while the last two listed meetings produced 2-0 and 2-2 results. A narrow Bologna win, such as 1-0 or 2-0, fits this selection.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
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*Odds available at time of writing.









