The model gives Lens a 43.2% probability of winning, making Home the top 1X2 outcome. Lens are ninth with 13 points from nine matches, while Marseille are seventh with 15 points. Lens have won the last three listed meetings, including a 3-1 home win in January 2026, and home advantage may prove decisive despite Marseille’s stronger table position. The available Home price is 2.0000.

The model gives Both Teams To Score — Yes a 65.8% probability. Lens have scored 16 goals and conceded 13 in nine league matches, while Marseille have scored 20 and conceded 13. Recent head-to-head results have produced goals at both ends, with Lens winning 3-1 and Marseille winning 3-1 in the last five listed meetings. The Yes price is 1.4400.

The model gives Over 2.5 a 66.0% probability, the strongest of the three selections. Both teams have positive attacking numbers, with 36 combined goals scored across their league campaigns, and the recent head-to-head list includes several three-goal matches. The supplied goal-line prices are for 3.25 and 3.5 rather than 2.5, so no exact Over 2.5 odds are available.