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At a glance
The statistical model gives Benfica a 71% probability to win away against Moreirense, with the draw at 18% and a Moreirense win at 11%.
The model estimates a 55% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Moreirense vs Benfica.
The model puts the probability that both Moreirense and Benfica score at 44%.
Moreirense vs Benfica kicks off on Wednesday 09 September 2026 at 19:45.
Moreirense vs Benfica Preview | Liga Portugal 2026/27
Welcome to Extratips and to this lively Liga Portugal clash in Moreira de Cónegos. Moreirense host Benfica on 9 September at Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, and the gap on paper is clear. The model gives Benfica 70.0% for the win, with BTTS No at 55.9% and Over 2.5 at 53.0%. The top odds also back the visitors, with Away priced at 1.2300.
Benfica arrive as the stronger side and should have more control in midfield. Moreirense will need a fast start and a tight block to stay alive. In the direct match-up, Benfica usually carry the better edge, and that matters again here. The key battle is whether Moreirense can keep this slow and narrow. If not, Benfica can pull away and make the game theirs.
A 0-2 or 1-2 away result looks the most natural fit. Benfica to win is the main call, with the clean-sheet angle also strong.
Moreirense vs Benfica Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Moreirense a 11% win probability, Benfica 71%, and the draw 18%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 56%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 55%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 127
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Moreirense vs Benfica: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x21.2300
Benfica to win
The model gives Away a 70.0% probability, and the market also leans strongly Benfica. That fits the gap in quality, Benfica’s stronger status, and the usual head-to-head edge. Moreirense can compete at home, but the numbers still point clearly to an away win.
Both Teams To Score1.7700
Both teams not to score
The model gives No a 55.9% probability. Benfica are favored to control the game, while Moreirense may struggle to break through against the stronger side. The odds also support a tighter match, with the away team likely limiting chances.
Over/Under1.8600
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 53.0% probability. Benfica’s attacking edge makes this a live option, and an away-dominant game can still open up if the first goal comes early. Recent market pricing also shows a slight lean toward goals rather than a low-scoring match.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
4.05
Potential Winnings
$152.47
Benfica to win
1x2 / Away
Both teams not to score
Both Teams To Score / No
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
2
Value Pick
@ 1.23 Fair odd 1.22 · dafabet
Value pick — the model rates this outcome more likely than the bookmaker.
Stake
2.16
Full Time Result
11%
Home
Fair odd 9.51
18%
Draw
Fair odd 5.42
71%
Away
Fair odd 1.41
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 77%
Under 23%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 55%
Under 45%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 32%
Under 68%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 44%
No 56%
First Half Winner
10%
Home
34%
Draw
56%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
4%
3%
4%
Draw
4%
10%
20%
Away
1%
3%
51%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.4
12.7
13.0
9.9
1
3.9
8.2
9.2
6.1
2
1.2
3.0
3.4
2.7
3
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
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Benfica2Moreirense0| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 11:1 | 15 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 14:5 | 13 | WWWWD | |
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 11 | WDWWD | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 14:3 | 10 | WWWD | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 7:3 | 9 | WLWW | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3:1 | 7 | LDWW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 5:3 | 7 | WWD | |
| 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 6:8 | 7 | LLDWW | |
| 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 9:8 | 6 | DWDD | |
| 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5:8 | 5 | WLDLD | |
| 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 6:8 | 4 | LLLWD | |
| 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3:5 | 4 | DLWLL | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4:8 | 4 | LWLD | |
| 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | DDLLD | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 2:11 | 3 | LLWLL | |
| 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5:10 | 2 | LDLDL | |
| 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 2:7 | 1 | LLLD | |
| 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 0:11 | 1 | DLLLL |
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