Our model gives the Home win a 52.2% probability, making Netherlands the most likely winners on neutral ground. That aligns with the 1.6100 price on the Dutch, which implies they are strong favourites compared to 4.0000 for the draw and 5.0000 for Sweden. With their deeper squad and higher technical level, they should control most of the ball and territory, forcing Sweden to defend for long spells. Sweden can be stubborn, but over 90 minutes Netherlands’ attacking quality and bench options tilt this toward a Dutch victory. Given both the model edge and the market odds, backing Netherlands to win is a logical main pick.

The model rates Both Teams To Score Yes at 56.5%, so goals at both ends are more likely than not. That is slightly stronger than the market view, with BTTS Yes priced at 1.9500 and No at 1.8000, suggesting a fairly open contest. Netherlands usually commit many players forward, which creates chances but also leaves space behind their back line. Sweden are well known for their set‑piece danger and quick counters, both of which can hurt an attacking side on neutral ground. Combining Dutch dominance with Sweden’s threat on breaks makes a 2‑1 or 3‑1 type scoreline very realistic, so BTTS Yes fits both the model numbers and the expected game pattern.

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 55.9% probability, edging it clearly over the Under at 44.1%. The market has Over 2.5 at 1.9200 with Under 2.5 also at 1.9200, showing bookmakers see it as a near coin‑flip, while the model leans to goals. With Netherlands favoured and expected to attack, they should generate plenty of shots and set pieces across the match. At the same time, the model expects Sweden to contribute on the scoresheet, which further boosts the chance of a three‑goal or higher total. A likely scenario is a 2‑1 or 3‑1 win for Netherlands, which fits all three picks: Home win, BTTS Yes, and Over 2.5 goals. In conclusion, the goals market lines up neatly with the expected flow and our main match prediction.