Our model makes Egypt clear favourites, giving the Away outcome a 48.3% chance, compared to 26.6% for the draw and 25.1% for New Zealand. Bookmakers back this view, with Egypt priced around 1.75–1.77 to win, while New Zealand are out at about 4.60–5.07, which signals a clear gap in quality. The pattern points to Egypt’s stronger squad, higher technical level, and better big‑tournament experience. New Zealand tend to defend deep and struggle to create many clear chances against top opposition, especially on neutral pitches, which fits with Egypt grinding out a professional win rather than a wide‑open shootout.

The model leans towards a low‑scoring game, giving BTTS – No a 52.5% probability, slightly higher than Yes at 47.5%. The odds back this edge, with BTTS No around 1.70, shorter than Yes at about 2.05, showing the market expects at least one side to blank. That ties in well with the 1X2 picture: Egypt are favoured, but New Zealand often rely on set pieces and counters and can go long spells without testing the keeper against stronger teams. If Egypt control the ball and New Zealand sit deep, a 1–0 or 2–0 to Egypt looks more likely than an open game where both nets bulge.

Our model gives Under 2.5 goals a solid 56.4% probability, ahead of Over 2.5 at 43.6%, pointing towards a cagey contest. Bookmaker lines support this, with Under 2.5 trading between 1.61 and 1.68 against Over 2.5 at roughly 2.15–2.22, which is a clear tilt towards fewer goals. This dovetails with the other projections: Egypt are expected to win, but BTTS is more likely to land on No, suggesting a controlled Egypt performance rather than a goal fest. The most logical scorelines are 1–0 or 2–0 to Egypt, both of which sit neatly under the 2.5 line. Conclusion: Egypt to edge it in a tight, low‑scoring match where their extra quality makes the difference without turning it into a rout.