EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Newcastle United a 38% probability to beat Aston Villa, with the draw at 26% and a Aston Villa win at 36%.
The model estimates a 56% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa.
The model puts the probability that both Newcastle United and Aston Villa score at 59%.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:30.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: Premier League Match Prediction
Welcome to Extratips for the Newcastle United vs Aston Villa preview. The match starts at 16:30 on 17 October 2026 at St. James' Park.
Newcastle sit 11th with 8 points, while Villa are 14th with 5. Both clubs have mixed recent form, each recording two wins, one draw, and two losses across their last five matches. Their latest league meeting ended Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa, but Newcastle answered with a 3-1 FA Cup win in February. The recent rivalry has been balanced, with Newcastle holding six wins, Villa five, and four draws in the listed head-to-head record.
The main prices point to a tight home edge: Newcastle are 2.0900, Villa 3.2200, and the draw 3.7800. Goals also look likely, with Both Teams To Score at 1.5300 and Over 2.5 at 1.5900.
Newcastle's strengths are home energy, attacking width, and a stronger league position. Their concerns include defensive gaps and several doubts, including Daniel Burn and Joelinton. Villa bring counter-attacking pace and recent success in this fixture, but injuries to Amadou Onana, Ian Maatsen, and Leon Goretzka may reduce balance. Watch the midfield battle, the first goal, and whether Villa can exploit Newcastle's defensive uncertainty.
A lively 2-1 home win is the main scenario, rated medium-high. A 1-1 draw is also plausible, rated medium. A Villa away win remains possible, but rates lower. The clearest angles are Newcastle's home advantage, goals at both ends, and a close rematch after Villa's recent league success. Overall, expect an open contest with Newcastle narrowly favoured.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Newcastle United a 38% win probability, Aston Villa 36%, and the draw 26%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 59%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 56%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 116
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Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lost1x22.0900
Newcastle United to win
The model gives Home a 39.3% probability, making it the top 1X2 outcome. Newcastle have home advantage at St. James' Park, while the latest table places them above Aston Villa, 11th on 8 points against Villa's 14th on 5. However, the narrow margin and recent 0-2 Villa win in January suggest a close contest. The best listed Home price is 2.0900.
LostBoth Teams To Score1.5300
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Yes a 59.1% probability. The teams have shown mixed recent form, with both recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Newcastle's home setting should support their attack, while Villa have enough threat to find a reply. The listed Yes odds are 1.5300.
LostOver/Under1.5900
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 55.1% probability. Both teams' recent results include open games, and the BTTS model preference points toward goals at both ends. Newcastle's home edge may raise the tempo, while Villa's defensive record is weaker, with the latest standings showing a -5 goal difference. The listed Over 2.5 odds are 1.5900.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
5.08
Potential Winnings
$204.22
Newcastle United to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
38%
Home
Fair odd 2.63
26%
Draw
Fair odd 3.82
36%
Away
Fair odd 2.79
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 79%
Under 21%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 56%
Under 44%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 34%
Under 66%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 59%
No 41%
First Half Winner
30%
Home
40%
Draw
30%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
21%
6%
4%
Draw
13%
16%
12%
Away
3%
6%
21%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.1
7.3
5.0
2.7
1
8.0
11.8
8.1
3.9
2
5.7
8.2
6.3
2.9
3
3.0
3.9
3.2
1.7
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 20:10 | 21 | LLWWW | |
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 13:5 | 21 | WWWLW | |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 24:7 | 19 | WLWWW | |
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19:15 | 16 | WLWWL | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 11:8 | 15 | WWLWD | |
| 6 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 16:9 | 14 | WDLDW | |
| 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 14:13 | 12 | WWWLL | |
| 8 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11:10 | 11 | DDLDL | |
| 9 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 9:8 | 11 | LDDLD | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 12:14 | 11 | WLLWL | |
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 9:12 | 11 | WWDWL | |
| 12 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14:18 | 11 | DDLWL | |
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 8:9 | 10 | LLDWD | |
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 8:10 | 9 | WWDLD | |
| 15 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9:16 | 9 | WLLWW | |
| 16 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8:10 | 8 | WWLDD | |
| 17 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10:15 | 7 | LLDDD | |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 9:19 | 7 | LLWDL | |
| 19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6:12 | 6 | LDLLL | |
| 20 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 7:17 | 5 | LDLLL |
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