Our model makes Roma clear favourites, giving the Home win a 56.5% probability, and the betting markets back that up with Home priced around 1.56–1.58. Roma dominated Fiorentina last season, winning 4–0 at the Olimpico on 4 May 2026 and 2–1 away in October 2025, and also took the home fixture 1–0 in May 2025. Across the last five meetings, Roma have three wins, Fiorentina one, and one draw, with Roma’s two latest home games in this matchup both ending in clean‑sheet victories for the Giallorossi. Roma come into the new Serie A campaign after a strong finish last season and an attacking pre‑season, while Fiorentina have been more up‑and‑down, drawing several recent games and showing defensive lapses. Motivation should also favour Roma: they open their Serie A 2026/27 campaign at a full Stadio Olimpico, with pressure to start fast under Gasperini after pushing for European spots last year. With recent head‑to‑head dominance, the home‑field edge, stronger squad depth and a model‑backed 56.5% chance of a home win, Roma to win is the most logical 1X2 prediction, even if no outcome is ever guaranteed in football.

Our model gives Both Teams to Score Yes a 52.2% probability, narrowly favouring it over No, and the market is very close as well, with Yes around 1.95 and No about 1.80. The recent head‑to‑head record shows that this fixture can open up: in the last five league meetings we saw scorelines of 4–0, 2–1, 1–0, 5–1 and 2–2, with both teams scoring in two of those and Fiorentina creating chances even when they lost. Roma’s style under Gasperini is front‑foot and aggressive, which often leaves space in behind; their preseason tour brought high‑scoring matches like 4–1 and 3–3, pointing to an open defensive structure. Fiorentina’s recent form includes several draws with goals at both ends, as their attack remains dangerous on transitions while the back line still makes mistakes. Even if Roma are favourites, Fiorentina have enough attacking quality to nick a goal from a set piece or counter, especially early in the season when defences are not fully settled. Combining the model’s 52.2% edge on BTTS Yes with the tactical setups and recent scoring trends, Both Teams To Score Yes is a realistic companion pick alongside a Roma win.

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 52.1% probability, slightly higher than Under, and bookmakers broadly agree, with Over 2.5 trading around 1.88–1.90 at the 2.5 goal line. The last five league meetings between Roma and Fiorentina produced results of 4–0, 2–1, 1–0, 5–1 and 2–2, meaning three of those five went over this line and several were one‑sided wins that could easily have seen even more goals. Roma at the Olimpico usually play on the front foot, and their recent run of victories over Fiorentina – including the 4–0 in May 2026 – shows they can rack up goals when they get on top. Gasperini’s approach tends to produce high‑tempo games with lots of shots and transitions rather than slow, cagey battles. Fiorentina, meanwhile, have mixed results away from home but still carry threat in attack, which ties in with our Both Teams To Score Yes angle and supports a more open scoreline such as 2–1 or 3–1. With the model leaning 52.1% toward Over, supportive odds around 1.88, and an attacking historical pattern in this fixture, Over 2.5 goals fits well with a Roma win and BTTS Yes as a coherent match script. As always, goals are never guaranteed, but the data leans this way.